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Safe Haven Trade Returns
Aug 14, 1:41AM
I shouldn’t have been so complacent in declaring the paradigm shift in forex markets, whereby risk aversion had given way to comparative growth and interest rate differentials. While such a shift might have been present – or even dominant – in forex markets over the last couple months, it appears to have once again been [...]
SNB Leads Downward Pressure on Euro
Aug 12, 7:18AM
Since the beginning of this week, the Euro has retreated 3% against the US Dollar, including a 2% dip in Wednesday’s trading session, alone. Is it possible that the Euro rally was too good to be true, or is this correction only temporary? Earlier this week, Adam reported that China (via the institution that manages its [...]
China Currency Revaluation: More Than Just the Yuan at Stake
Aug 09, 10:21PM
I concluded my last post (Euro Recovery: Paradigm Shift Confirmed) by musing about how interesting it is that nobody has taken credit for predicting/profiting from the sudden reversal in forex markets, whereby the Euro has surged and the Dollar has tanked. Two days later, I think I can offer an explanation: China. That’s right. The force [...]
Euro Recovery: Paradigm Shift Confirmed
Aug 07, 4:02PM
In early July, when the Euro rally was (in hindsight) just getting under way, I reported on the apparent paradigm shift in forex markets, whereby risk-driven trades that benefited the Dollar were giving way to trades driven by fundamentals, which could conceivably favor the Euro. Since then, the Euro has continued to rally (bringing the [...]
Fed Mulls Options for Next Week's Meeting
Aug 05, 4:00PM
Next week, the Open Market Committee (OMC) of the Federal Reserve Bank will hold its monthly meeting. Even without checking futures prices, it’s obvious that the probability of an interest rate hike is nil. [In fact, the odds of a rate hike in November have already converged to 0%]. Why, then, are investors keenly awaiting [...]
Interview with Roland Manarin: "Don't Try to Beat the Market"
Aug 03, 4:56PM
Today, we bring you an interview with Roland Manarin, founder of Manarin Investment Counsel and Manarin-On-Money. Below, he shares his thoughts on risk management and the EU Sovereign Debt Crisis, among other topics. Forex Blog: How would you summarize your general approach to investing? In the management of retirement assets, I subscribe to global diversification using [...]
Japanese Yen: Intervention is Imminent?
Aug 01, 4:27PM
I last mused about the possibility of Japanese Yen intervention in June (Japanese Yen: 90 or 95?): “It seems that anything between 90 and 95 is acceptable, while a drop below 90 is cause for intervention.” Since then, the Japanese Yen has fallen below 86 Yen per Dollar (the USD/JPY pair is now down 7% [...]
Boom Time for Forex
Jul 30, 7:08AM
It has been three years since the Bank of International Settlements’ last report on foreign exchange was released. Since then, analysts could only speculate about how the forex market has evolved and changed. The wait is now over, thanks to a huge data release by the world’s Central Bank, which showed that daily trading volume currently [...]
How About Those Stress Tests…
Jul 27, 3:04PM
What’s the deal with those stress tests? It sounds like the setup for a Jerry Seinfeld joke, and given the way the tests were viewed by the markets, it might as well have been. According to the EU, the tests were a tremendous success. According to investors, the results were irrelevant at best, and patently [...]
Forex Volatility to Remain High
Jul 24, 7:03AM
With the onset of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis this year, volatility levels in forex (as well as in other financial markets), surged to levels not seen since the height of the credit crisis. While volatility has subsided slightly over the last few months, it still remains above its average for the year, and significantly [...]
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