Forex Crunch EUR/USD Close To Uptrend Support Before NFP |
- EUR/USD Close To Uptrend Support Before NFP
- USD/CAD Jumps on Disappointing Canadian Jobs
- Think Demo Trading Will Make You Successful?… Guess Again
- Forex Daily Outlook – August 6 2010
| EUR/USD Close To Uptrend Support Before NFP Posted: 06 Aug 2010 04:37 AM PDT
EUR/USD, that enjoyed a sharp rally in a steep uptrend channel, is flirting with the bottom edge of this channel just before the critical release of the NFP. Technical update on this pair.
As seen in the graph (click to enlarge), EUR/USD is trading in a steep uptrend channel in the past two and a half weeks. After reaching the resistance line of 1.3267 (seen in the EUR/USD forecasts) earlier this week, the pair began trading sideways, getting close to the bottom border of the channel. This line, marked on the hourly chart, currently stands on 1.3159, and will tick up to 1.3160 during the hour of the release. EUR/USD currently trades at 1.3172 – quite close. Below the support line of the uptrend channel, lies the support line of 1.3114. EUR/USD made a clear break of this line at the beginning of the week, and tested it on Thursday morning – it’s a strong line. Below this line, the round number of 1.30 provides further support, followed by 1.2880. A break above 1.3267, which was a support line in April, will send the pair towards the upper border of the uptrend channel, standing at 1.3392 at the moment. Above, the resistance line of 1.3435, another former support line, will cap the pair. Current expectations for the Non-Farm Payrolls stand on a loss of 63,000 jobs. I believe that the result will be slightly better, around 20,000. As written in the NFP preview, the focus will be once again on the private sector, and not on the headline figure. A significant gain of jobs in the private sector will boost the dollar, while a drop will inflict serious damage. Stay tuned. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.. |
| USD/CAD Jumps on Disappointing Canadian Jobs Posted: 06 Aug 2010 04:04 AM PDT
After seeing outstanding results in recent months, Canadian job figures were disappointing this time – a drop of 9,300 jobs, falling short of an expected gain of 13,700 jobs. Also the unemployment rate rose from 7.9% to 8%. USD/CAD broke above resistance. In the hour before the publication of the jobs data, USD/CAD went back up from 1.0165 to the almost 1.02 – the resistance line, but lost it after the release. The pair currently trades 1.0225 after already touching 1.0250. It’s still far from the next barrier:
Looking up, 1.0280 is a minor line of resistance above, followed by the veteran line of 1.04. Higher, 1.0550 and 1.0680 are the next resistance lines, but they’re quite far now. Last month’s figures were superb. Employment Change showed a gain of 93,200 jobs, more than a five-fold of early expectations. Also the unemployment rate was a huge surprise, dropping under 8% for the first time in almost a year and a half. In the hour before the publication of the jobs data, USD/CAD went back up from 1.0165 to the almost 1.02 – the resistance line. At the beginning of the week, USD/CAD fell towards the 1.02 support line (the 2009 low) and hovered above it. On Wednesday, a fresh wave of US weakness sent the pair below this line, sending it 1.0160. On Thursday, the report about Canadian Building Permits boosted the loonie – permits jumped by 6.5%, far better than 1.2% that was expected. Also last month’s figure, which was negative, was revised to the upside. USD/CAD went as low as 1.0107, just above the minor resistance line of 1.01, before bouncing higher. Below 1.01, the next line is the ultimate line of USD/CAD parity, last seen in April. Below this line, 0.98 and 0.97 are the next barriers. Reaching these lines depends a lot on the price of oil. At 12:30 GMT, the American Non-Farm Payrolls are due, and anything can happen, but the Canadian dollar now approaches this release at an inferior position. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.. |
| Think Demo Trading Will Make You Successful?… Guess Again Posted: 05 Aug 2010 11:47 PM PDT
Guest post from visionsofaffluence.com Demo trading. We are all familiar with it. We have all heard the advice of the experts that tell you that you should demo trade first in order to learn how to trade. Indeed demo trading is thought by many to be the path to trading success because by allowing people to trade without risking any money gives them the chance to learn how to trade without the fear of losing money. This lack of risk however is what makes demo trading ineffective at creating successful traders, because without the risk of losing money you will never be able to deal with the emotions that cripple so many traders. Now I’m not saying that you shouldn’t demo trade at all, but if you think that you are going to spend some time demo trading and then be able to go live and start making profits then you have another thing coming. You see trading in a simulated environment without any risk of loss will not help your trading. In order to become a successful trader you are going to have to master you emotions and get over the psychological handicaps that plague most new traders. There is no way you can do this trading a demo account because you won’t have any real money at risk and therefore you won’t be able to deal with the psychological aspect of trading. In order to become a successful trader you are going to have to learn how you deal with risk when there is real money on the line. In a demo account you aren't risking anything so that trading amounts to little more than a videogame. It's a simulation that will teach you the mechanics of trading but it will not prepare you for the many psychological pitfalls that will await you once you go live. I have seen many traders make a killing in a demo account but once it comes to real money they fall apart. So if your trading a demo account and think that you are going to go live and be a trading superstar then you are in for a rude awakening. Once again I'm not saying that you shouldn't demo trade at all just that you should think of it as orientation and that class doesn't begin until you open your first trade with real money on the line. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.. |
| Forex Daily Outlook – August 6 2010 Posted: 05 Aug 2010 02:00 PM PDT
U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, US Unemployment Change, Canada Employment Situation and Unemployment Rate and many other important events await us today. Here is an outlook on the final day of another trading week. In the US, Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation Report, one of the most important indicators of economic health, measuring the number of new jobs created or lost in the world's largest economy is expecting another month of job losses up to 59,000, following a worse than expected 125,000 job losses in June and market sentiment could worsen as the unemployment rate is expected to increase to 9.6% in July from 9.5% in June.
More in the US, Average Hourly Earnings expected 1.0% increase following 0.1% drop in the previous month. Finally in the US, Consumer Credit continues to decline following the sharp drop of 9.1B in June a further 5.4B drop is expected now. In Canada, Employment Situation and Unemployment Rate, the Canadian economy added almost five times more jobs that initially forecasted in June, but we could see lesser jobs creation by 13.3 K jobs in July, compared with the 93.2 K in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 7.9%. Finally in Canada, Employment Change forecasted 13.3K rise following a better than expected rise of 93.2K in June while Unemployment Rate remains unchanged at 7.9%. For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast. In Europe, German Industrial Production rising 3 consecutive months is expected to continue rising by 0.9% following 2.6% rise in the previous month. More in Europe, French Trade Balance is forecasted to narrow its deficit by 4.6B following 5.5B deficit in May and French Government Budget Balance reaching 67.9B deficit is likely to continue growing. Finally in Europe, Italian Industrial Production expected 0.3% rise following two months of 1.0% rise and Italian Prelim GDP predicted 0.4% rise following 0.5% rise in the previous quarter. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis. In Great Britain, GBP- U.K. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Fri., Aug. 6, 4:30 am, ET. Later in Great Britain, Industrial Production is expected to continue rising by 0.3% following 0.7% rise in May. Finally in Great Britain, PPI Input measuring the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers intended to decrease by 0.4% following 0.2% decline in June indicating deflation in the last three months while PPI output is predicted to increase by 0.1% following a 0.3% decrease in May. Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast. In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate remains low and unchained at 3.9%. In Australia, RBA Monetary Policy Statement is released provides valuable insight into the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation – the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast. In Japan, Leading Indicators index based on 12 economic indicators is expected to reach 98.9 points 0.3 more than in the previous month. That’s it for today. Happy forex trading! Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free. |
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