Forex Blog

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Interview with Roland Manarin: “Don’t Try to Beat the Market” Posted: 03 Aug 2010 09:56 AM PDT Today, we bring you an interview with Roland Manarin, founder of Manarin Investment Counsel and Manarin-On-Money. Below, he shares his thoughts on risk management and the EU Sovereign Debt Crisis, among other topics. Forex Blog: How would you summarize your general approach to investing? In the management of retirement assets, I subscribe to global diversification using low-cost, asset-class funds that adhere to Modern Portfolio Theory.  From an economics perspective, I follow the Austrian model. Forex Blog:  Which risks do you currently perceive as most problematic and which are therefore most important to monitor? There are always risks but for me a concern is the massive amount of malinvestment in the world financial system.  What’s the next spasm to show up?  A bond bubble burst?  A major shift in velocity shooting inflation upwards?  I’m no good at trading, and in today’s world I wonder if anyone is.  There is no one investment plan that is safe but some are safer than others. Forex Blog:  What is your assessment of the sovereign debt crisis in EU? I stress broad diversification because I think the world’s financial markets are in the hands of major risk-addicts so as an investor, I must be prepared for anything.  I could be wrong, but it appears we are nearing the collapse of the European welfare state. Forex Blog:  Are you optimistic about the near-term prospects for US economic recovery? I want to be but what shakes my confidence is America being on the same road as Europe. Forex Blog:  Do you think the Fed is close to raising interest rates? Who knows?  If you can tell me what moves Bernanke and Co. are going to make in the near term, I would feel very good about where to invest my money for maximum return.  But we don’t so everything is just a guess. Forex Blog: Do you think there is a risk that failure to unwind its quantitative easing program could drive inflation? I think malinvestment and currency debasement could drive inflation. Forex Blog:  Considering the recent surge in volatility, what approach do you think Central Banks should take to managing the value of their respective currencies?  Do you think intervention is necessary/desirable? The federal government/Federal Reserve model of intervention typically follows a simple model:  Tax, spend, borrow, print, subsidize, regulate, go broke.  I don’t think that would be desirable. Forex Blog:  What’s your advice to investors that want to beat the market during this period of uncertainty? Don’t try.  Few pros have the long term track record of outperforming the market.  Instead adopt a simple, diversified plan that will allow you to get through this historic turning point we are living through in fine shape.

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