Forex Crunch EUR/USD Outlook – August 16-20 |
EUR/USD Outlook – August 16-20 Posted: 14 Aug 2010 05:00 AM PDT After a terrible week for the Euro, it now expects a relatively calm week, with the ZEW Economic Sentiment being the highlight. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now at much lower ground. EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: Excellent GDP figures on Friday failed to help the Euro – the gloomy mood in the markets, triggered by Ben Bernanke sent it lower. Will the Euro stabilize this week? Let’s start:
EUR/USD Technical Analysis The jump above 1.3267 that happened after the Non-Farm Payrolls was quickly erased at the beginning of the week as EUR/USD fell below 1.3267 and violated the uptrend channel. After some flirting with the 1.3114 line, the Fed decision eventually sent the pair sharply down, with only a temporary rise, to 1.2750, over 500 pips this week. EUR/USD now trades between 1.2722, that worked as resistance when the Euro was moving upwards a few weeks ago, and 1.2880, which served as support in 2009 and is now a minor line of support. Higher, 1.2930 capped the Euro in the past week, and is a new line of resistance (it didn’t appear in last week’s outlook). Above, the round psychological number of 1.30 provides minor resistance, and is quoted many times. Above, 1.3114, which was a significant line of support and resistance in the past two weeks, continues to be of importance, despite being violated several times. Even higher, 1.3267, is the next resistance line, followed by 1.3435. Both were support lines in the past. Looking down below 1.2722, the next minor support line is 1.2610, which worked as a resistance line in May and July. Further down the road, 1.2460 is already a stronger line, working as strong resistance line in June. Even lower, 1.2250 is the next minor support line, and its followed by a very strong line: 1.2150. This clear line of support held the Euro 4 times, and after it broke below this line, it needed a weekend gap to return back up. I am bearish on EUR/USD. Despite excellent numbers for the second quarter, there are 3 fundamental reasons why the party is over. And with the break of the uptrend channel, also technical point to one direction – down. This pair receives excellent reviews on the web. Here are my favorites:
Further reading:
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Forex Weekly Outlook – August 16-20 Posted: 14 Aug 2010 02:00 AM PDT GDP from Japan, an important German survey and the Philly Manufacturing Index are among the highlights of this week. Here’s an outlook for the major market-moving events this week. The echoes from the ground-breaking Fed decision still rock the markets. Fear has returned, big time. Risk aversion dominates trading, with the dollar storming the board. Will this continue or will we see signs of optimism? Let’s start:
That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for the coverages on specific currencies. Further reading:
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Posted: 13 Aug 2010 02:00 PM PDT After a turbulent week that saw a major shift in the trend, the markets are closed and its time to relax with some long-term forex-related articles. Here are my favorites:
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