Posted: 26 Aug 2010 12:31 AM PDT

EUR/USD managed to weather the fresh wave of bad US figures and to edge up towards the resistance line. Will it recover? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD below long term support, attempting on 1.2722 – click to enlarge

EUR/USD Technicals

Asian session: An active session saw EUR/USD edge upwards. This intensified when the European session began.
Current Range is between 1.2722 to 1.2830, if the break above 1.2722 is confirmed.
Further levels: Below, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150. Above 1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30 and 1.3110.
Long term: On August 20th, EUR/USD lost less steep uptrend channel began on June 7th, from the year-to-date low of 1.1876. This turns into a resistance line now. For today, it stands on 1.2873. A push upwards will make this line important once again.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

6:00 GMT: German GfK Consumer Climate . Exp. 4.1, Actual 4.1, as expected.
8:00 GMT: M3 Money Supply. Exp. +0.4.
12:30 GMT: US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 488K.
14:00 GMT: US Mortgage Delinquencies.

EUR/USD Sentiment

Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive, although devastating figures that we’ve seen in recent days just shocked the markets.
The 1.2610 line is critical.
US unemployment claims will be closely watched, especially after last week’s figure reached the alarming number of 500K.
Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long, with shortists having the upper hand. This is a small change from yesterday, when the ratio was 56:44. These are 926 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

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Forex Daily Outlook – August 26 2010

Posted: 25 Aug 2010 02:00 PM PDT

U.S. Unemployment Claims, Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and Japan’s CPI are the major events today. Here is an outlook on the activities ahead.

In the US, Unemployment Claims rose sharply in August reaching 500K last week this is an ominous signal for the US economy, a drop to 486K is expected now.

More in the US, Mortgage Delinquencies measuring the percentage of MBA-represented mortgages which were at least one payment late during the previous quarter predicted to remain around 10.0% this quarter.

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from around the world.. Comments and speeches from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility this Could Have Wide-Ranging Implications on all markets.

Finally in the US, Natural Gas Storage dropped to 27B last week and is likely to remain the same this week.

In Europe, GfK German Consumer Climate index based on a survey of about 2,000 consumers climbed to 3.9 points in July and is expected to continue rising to 4.1 points this month.

More in Europe, M3 Money Supply measuring change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks forecasted 0.4% rise following the 0.2% rise in June and Private Loans are expected the same rise of 0.4% after 0.3% rise in the previous month.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis.

In Great Britain, CBI Realized Sales index based on a survey of about 160 retail and wholesale companies is expected a 10 point decrease from the 33 point climb in July.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, Employment Level expected to rise by 10K this quarter following 3.96M in the last three quarters.

In Australia, Private Capital Expenditure a leading indicator of economic health predicted 2.3% rise following 0.2% drop in the previous quarter a positive sign for the Australian market.

More in Australia, CB Leading Index a combined reading of 7 economic indicators related to money supply, building approvals, profits, exports, inventories and interest rate spreads expected to remain 0.3%

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Tokyo core Consumer Price Index, the most important consumer inflation release is expected to stay below 0% with a reading of -1.2% due to deflation trend as well as National Core CPI predicted -1.1% drop.

More in Japan, Household Spending forecasted to increase by 1.5% following 0.5% increase in the previous month and Unemployment Rate expected to remain 5.3%.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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The System Is Perfectly Fine… Maybe You’re The Problem

Posted: 25 Aug 2010 06:00 AM PDT

Guest post from visionsofaffluence.com

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You see if you're the type of trader that's constantly hopping around from system to system then you are severely hurting your chances at being successful. How do you ever expect to become a good trader if you never stick with a method long enough to learn it? Contrary to popular belief trading isn't plug_and_play. In order to be profitable with any method you are going to have to invest the time it takes to learn its ins and outs. I you may not want to hear that because every person that come into this business wants to start making money as soon a possible, but that's not how things work because if you rush into this business you will end up depressed and with a empty trading account. So before you declare that your chosen method doesn't work and decide to start looking for a new one make sure you have given yourself to truly understand it and its implementation.

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