24.04.2012 02:05 GMT+1 - USD/JPY intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 81.25

Our preference: Short positions below 81.25 with targets @ 80.85 & 80.6 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 81.25 look for further upside with 81.4 & 81.65 as targets.

Comment: the pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance.

23.04.2012 07:16 GMT+1 - USD/JPY intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 81.50.

Our Preference: SHORT positions @ 81.45 with 81.15 & 80.85 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 81.5 will open the way to 81.75 & 81.85.

Comment: the pair has struck against its resistance and remains under pressure.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: October 05

The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 88.59 but whipsawed to the upside and closed at 89.79. At the same time, the bearish continuation failure followed by an important technical event as price slipper above the trendline resistance (blue). Although it’s too early for a bullish view, it’s clear that the bearish scenario is now in critical phase as bearish pressure seems to begin to lose some momentum. Consistent move above the trendline should trigger further bullish momentum targeting at least 90.40 area. However if price reject to move consistently above the trendline, the bearish scenario should remains intact. Immediate support at 89.30 followed by 88.50.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 18

The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday. However, on h1 chart below we can see that the trendline resistance (red) has been violated to the upside at the same time price is making a new bullish channel (blue channel) indicating potential further upside correction testing 91.80 key resistance area. As long as the pair stay below that area I still prefer bearish scenario, but I will stay out for now. Immediate support at 90.70. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 90.20 key support area.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 17

The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 90.11 but further bearish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 90.89. On h1 chart below we can see that the 90.20 area which connected by the red horizontal line has been a strong support so far. On the upside, the trendline resistance and 91.80 area are my key level resistance area at this phase. As long as the pair stay below that area I still prefer a downside scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing the trendline resistance area but I will stay out for now as the bearish scenario remains intact. A violation to the trendline resistance should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 91.80 area.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 16

The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday but failed to break above 91.80 before whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 91.00. The way I see it, the bullish correction phase might over now and we are ready for a bearish continuation outlook. The bias is bearish in nearest term re-testing 90.20 area. Immediate resistance at 91.60/80 area. Break above that area should be seen as a potential threat to the current bearish outlook. CCI just cross the -100 line down on h1 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 15

The hanging man formation gave us a valid warning of a bearish correction yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.6520 and closed at 1.6576. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish momentum can not really made a violation to the bullish channel yet as the price still struggling around the bullish channel lower line. The bullish scenario remains intact and I still prefer an upside scenario, but I think it’s better to keep out from the market now. Immediate resistance at 1.6655 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6740 area. Initial support at 1.6500. Valid break below that area should be seen as potential bullish failure.

14 September 2009 Forecast

EURUSD Forecast:

The EURUSD made indecisive movement on Friday indicating consolidation after some bullish momentum. On daily chart below we can see that the pair still moving in a bullish channel but price retreat lower around the upper line of the bullish channel. I think the pair is in potential downside correction phase, testing 1.4446 support area. Break below that area should trigger further downside correction towards the bullish channel lower line. Only a violation the the bullish channel should be seen as bullish failure. Immediate resistance at 1.4633 area (Friday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4719. CCI in overbought area and heading down on daily chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 1.6740 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 1.6655, which is also the open price of the day, formed a Doji on daily chart. Like I already showed you on Saturday, the hanging man candlestick formation could lead us to some downside correction testing 1.6593 and 1.6500 ( 23.6% and 38.2% Fibo retracement of 1.6113 – 1.6740) support areas. Only a violation to the bullish channel could be seen as bullish failure. Immediate resistance at 1.6740 (Friday’s high). CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside rebound.


USDJPY Forecast:
As I had expected, the USDJPY continued it’s bearish momentum on Friday, hit my short target at 90.70, bottomed at 90.20 and closed at 90.70. On h1 chart below we have a hammer formation after some bullish momentum, so watch out for potential bullish correction testing 90.70 – 91.15 resistance area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction testing 91.80. As long as the pair stay below that area, I still prefer bearish scenario. Immediate support at 90.20. (Friday’s low). Break below that area should trigger further bearish continuation towards 89.70 area.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made indecisive movement on Friday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On daily chart below we can see that a Doji appeared after an inverted hammer during bearish momentum indicating that the bearish might have exhausted now and we might have potential bullish correction testing 1.0527 resistance area. As long as the pair stay below that area I still prefer bearish scenario. Immediate support at 1.0338. CCI in oversold area and heading up on daily chart suggesting potential upside pressure.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating bullish failure and potential bearish view. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 149.02. Immediate resistance at 151.10. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

Wed, 22th of April, 2009

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday. The pair attempted to make higher correction, topped at 1.2992 but closed lower at 1.2945. From the bearish scenario point of view since the downside momentum from 1.3734, as long as the pair stay below 1.3100, any upside corrective movement is “normal”. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are now in no trading zone. On daily chart we had symmetrical triangle formation indicating a consolidation. The “double bottom” at 1.2890 (April 20 and 21 low) area should be the key support level at this phase. Break below that area could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.2725 area. CCI in neutral area on both hourly and h4 chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.2896
• S2= 1.2847
• S3= 1.2799
• R1= 1.2993
• R2= 1.3041
• R3= 1.3090

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD was corrected higher yesterday. On h4 chart we can see that after breakdown the trendline support, the pair moved higher testing the same trendline (now become resistance). The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are entering the no trading zone. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4750. Initial support at 1.4550. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.4523
• S2= 1.4374
• S3= 1.4283
• R1= 1.4763
• R2= 1.4854
• R3= 1.5003

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY was traded higher yesterday. The pair topped at 98.89 and closed at 98.70. On h4 chart we can see that the bearish pressure from 101.43 found strong support around 97.60/70 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term and it’s better to stay away from the market now and wait for further development. Immediate resistance is seen at 99.00 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 97.98
• S2= 97.26
• S3= 96.81
• R1= 99.15
• R2= 99.60
• R3= 100.32

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday. On hourly chart below we can see that after had a significant bullish momentum, the pair is now moving in ranging area between 1.1739 – 1.1635. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Break from the ranging area could give us clearer direction. CCI in neutral area both on hourly and h4 chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.1633
• S2= 1.1593
• S3= 1.1552
• R1= 1.1714
• R2= 1.1755
• R3= 1.1795

April 20, 2009

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum on Friday. The pair break below the key support level at 1.3100, bottomed at 1.3016 and closed at 1.3024. My technical focus remains at the descending triangle formation indicating potential bearish scenario. However, pay attention to the psychological level around 1.3000 – 1.2950 which could be a potential strong support. Break below that support area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.2840 area. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3100. Break above that level could be a potential violation to the current bearish view and lead us back to the no trading zone. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside rebound.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.2961
• S2= 1.2898
• S3= 1.2781
• R1= 1.3141
• R2= 1.3258
• R3= 1.3321

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD made further bearish correction on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.4754 and closed at 1.4781. On 4h chart we can see that the pair is moving lower towards the bullish trendline support. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4650 but remains neutral in medium term. CCI in oversold area and heading up on 4h chart so watch out for a potential upside rebound testing 1.4830 resistance area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.4710
• S2= 1.4639
• S3= 1.4525
• R1= 1.4895
• R2= 1.5009
• R3= 1.5080

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement on Friday, formed another Doji formation on daily chart. On 4h chart we have a triangle formation indicating consolidation phase. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Break from the triangle should give us clearer direction. Immediate resistance is seen at 98.75. Initial resistance at 99.70. CCI in neutral area in all three time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 98.71
• S2= 98.20
• S3= 97.69
• R1= 99.73
• R2= 100.24
• R3= 100.75

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum on Friday. The pair topped at 1.1686 ans closed at 1.1671. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.1750. However CCI in overbought area and heading down on 4h chart so watch out for a potential downside pullback testing 1.1620 support area. Break below that support could trigger further bearish correction and take us back into no trading zone.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.1522
• S2= 1.1374
• S3= 1.1292
• R1= 1.1752
• R2= 1.1834
• R3= 1.1982