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"Risk-On, Risk-Off"
Aug 27, 2:46AM
It sounds like a play on words, based on the Karate Kid refrain, Wax-On Wax Off, and for all I know it was. Still, I rather like this characterization – coined by a research team at HSBC – of the markets‘ current performance. Moreover, you’ll notice from the placement of that apostrophe that I’m not [...]
Pound Rally Runs out of Steam
Aug 24, 8:44PM
The rally in the Pound, which lifted it 10% from trough to peak, appears to be fizzling. The Pound is already down 3% in the last two weeks, and is trending downward. It now stands at a four-week low against the Dollar. Looking back at the Pound’s two-month rise, it’s not hard to understand why it [...]
CAD: Steady as She Goes
Aug 21, 3:50PM
The Canadian Dollar was supposed to be one of the “hot” currencies of 2010. Given that it’s now exactly where it started the year, I think it’s safe to say that this isn’t the case. On the one hand, it would seem that the markets are still confused about how much the CAD should be [...]
Intervention Looms as Yen Closes in on Record High
Aug 20, 6:02AM
It was only a few weeks ago that I last wrote about the possibility of intervention on behalf of the Japanese Yen, and frankly, not a whole lot has changed since then. On the other hand, the Japanese Yen has continued to appreciate, the Japanese economy has continued to deteriorate, and the Bank of Japan [...]
US National Debt and the US Dollar
Aug 18, 3:05PM
Pessimists love to point to the surging US National Debt as an indication that the Dollar will one day collapse. And yet, not only has the US Dollar avoided collapse , but is actually holding steady in spite of record-setting budget deficits. That being the case, one has to wonder: As far as the forex [...]
Safe Haven Trade Returns
Aug 14, 1:41AM
I shouldn’t have been so complacent in declaring the paradigm shift in forex markets, whereby risk aversion had given way to comparative growth and interest rate differentials. While such a shift might have been present – or even dominant – in forex markets over the last couple months, it appears to have once again been [...]
SNB Leads Downward Pressure on Euro
Aug 12, 7:18AM
Since the beginning of this week, the Euro has retreated 3% against the US Dollar, including a 2% dip in Wednesday’s trading session, alone. Is it possible that the Euro rally was too good to be true, or is this correction only temporary? Earlier this week, Adam reported that China (via the institution that manages its [...]
China Currency Revaluation: More Than Just the Yuan at Stake
Aug 09, 10:21PM
I concluded my last post (Euro Recovery: Paradigm Shift Confirmed) by musing about how interesting it is that nobody has taken credit for predicting/profiting from the sudden reversal in forex markets, whereby the Euro has surged and the Dollar has tanked. Two days later, I think I can offer an explanation: China. That’s right. The force [...]
Euro Recovery: Paradigm Shift Confirmed
Aug 07, 4:02PM
In early July, when the Euro rally was (in hindsight) just getting under way, I reported on the apparent paradigm shift in forex markets, whereby risk-driven trades that benefited the Dollar were giving way to trades driven by fundamentals, which could conceivably favor the Euro. Since then, the Euro has continued to rally (bringing the [...]
Fed Mulls Options for Next Week's Meeting
Aug 05, 4:00PM
Next week, the Open Market Committee (OMC) of the Federal Reserve Bank will hold its monthly meeting. Even without checking futures prices, it’s obvious that the probability of an interest rate hike is nil. [In fact, the odds of a rate hike in November have already converged to 0%]. Why, then, are investors keenly awaiting [...]
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