Forex Crunch GBP/USD Outlook – September 13-17 |
- GBP/USD Outlook – September 13-17
- AUD/USD Outlook – September 13-17
- USD/CAD Outlook – September 13-17
- NZD/USD Outlook – September 13-17
- USD/JPY Outlook – September 13-17
- EUR/USD Outlook – September 13-17
GBP/USD Outlook – September 13-17 Posted: 12 Sep 2010 02:10 AM PDT Employment data, inflation figures and a public appearance by Mervyn King are the highlights of this busy week in the weak Pound. Here’s an outlook for the British events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. GBP/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: The rate decision in the past week didn’t provide any excitement. We’ll now get to see if there is any justification for any moves on the rate in the near future. Probably no need for hikes:
All times are GMT. GBP/USD Technical Analysis After a failed attempt to break the 1.5470 line, GBP/USD dropped sharply and eventuall fell below the strong 1.5350 line (mentioned in last week’s outlook) and dipped under 1.53. This was very temporary. The Pound rose back up and peaked around 1.5520 before falling and being supported by 1.5350 once again. After closing at 1.5355, the immediate and strong support line remains 1.5350, which is a critical line once again. It was also a support line in February and a resistance line in March. Looking down, 1.5230 was a significant resistance line in July and is now a major line of support. Below, 1.5120 will provide further support after having this same role in July. Below, 1.5050 line capped the pair on a recovery attempt back in May, and now works as a minor support line. Even lower, 1.4950 provided support in July and is the final line for now. 1.5470 is the immediate resistance on the upside. It also stopped the pair in July. 1.5520, which was a peak in April became a strong line once again. Higher, the veteran 1.5720 line that provided support in 2009 is the next line of resistance. Above, 1.5833, which worked as support at the beginning of the year and later worked as resistance, is the next line. Higher, the psychological round number of 1.60 proved to be a tough barrier and is the highest level in 6 months, and is the last line for now. I remain bearish on GBP/USD. This very busy week, with inflation and Mervyn King’s appearance, could provide the data to send the Pound out of range – downwards. Further reading:
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AUD/USD Outlook – September 13-17 Posted: 11 Sep 2010 10:00 PM PDT After a very busy week in the Australian calendar, the upcoming week has mostly second tier releases. Will the Aussie continue pushing forward? Here’s an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: While the pause in the rate hike was widely expected, Australian employment figures gave a significant boost the Aussie, signalling a possible renewal or rate hike. This also depends on the inflation. We’ll get some hints about prices this week.
All times are GMT. AUD/USD Technical Analysis The Australian dollar struggled with the 0.9135 line at the beginning of the week, but then finally climbed above the 0.9220 level (mentioned in last week’s outlook) and closed at 0.9263. The Aussie is now supported by the 0.9220 line which was the peak in August. April low of 0.9135 is now a minor support line, and it’s followed by 0.9080 which provided strong resistance in July and August. Further below, the round 0.90 line is a minor support line, followed by 0.8870, which was a double top in recent months, and now serves as support. Looking up, the 0.9327 line accompanies us since October and worked as a strong resistance lines many times since then. A break above this veteran line will send the pair to resistance at 0.9366 which was a stubborn peak during April. The 2009 peak of 0.9405 is the last visible resistance line on the graph. A break above this line be capped around 0.95, which was last seen in 2008. I remain bullish on AUD/USD. This week’s fresh and great employment figures continues the momentum from the strong second quarter. It seems that everything is going Australia’s way. Only gloomy risk aversive trading can provide headwinds in the near future. Further reading:
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USD/CAD Outlook – September 13-17 Posted: 11 Sep 2010 06:10 PM PDT The Canadian dollar had a busy and positive week, and will now have a lighter one – a week in which technicals will have more impact. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD, now at lower ground. USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: The third rate hike in Canada wasn’t fully priced, and the release boosted the Canadian dollar. Employment data was also better than predicted and helped push USD/CAD lower. This week, quarterly figures will provide a long term view.
All times are GMT. USD/CAD Technical Analysis The Canadian dollar’s week didn’t start of well – An initial drop lower failed and USD/CAD rose to test the 1.05 line (mentioned in last week’s outlook). It then made a sharp drop under 1.04 and tested 1.0280 before closing at 1.0366. The 1.04 line was the bottom border of a long-term wide range between 1.04 and 1.0750, and now serves as a minor resistance line. Above, 1.05 capped the pair in the past week and also a few weeks ago – it’s now a strong resistance line. Higher, 1.0680 is a double and stubborn top – it capped USD/CAD at the end of August and also at the beginning of July. Above this line, the pair will meet resistance at 1.0750 which was a resistance line in May last time, and then 1.0850, a swing high in May that also provided resistance back in 2009. Looking down, 1.0280 supported the pair in July and was also tested in the past week – making it a strong support line. Lower, 1.02 was the 2009 low and also worked as a resistance line after the pair hit parity. It’s now a minor support line. Lower, the 1.01 line provided support in May and in August and is a strong support line before the ultimate line – parity. I remain bearish on USD/CAD. This week’s excellent job figures, among other figures, showed that Canada is on the right track, and will outshine other countries. Further reading:
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NZD/USD Outlook – September 13-17 Posted: 11 Sep 2010 02:00 PM PDT A busy week expects kiwi traders, with the interest rate decision being the highlight. Here’s an outlook for events in New Zealand and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD. NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: The kiwi enjoyed risk appetite to make some gains. This week, it depends on its own indicators. Let’s start:
All times are GMT. NZD/USD Technical Analysis The kiwi drifted in between 0.7160 and 0.7250 (a resistance line that didn’t appear in last week’s outlook). It later managed to rise above this level and test the 0.73 resistance line before closing at 0.7279. This week’s high of 0.73 was also a peak in mid July, and is now a strong resistance line. Higher, the stubborn peak of 0.7356 in August provides further resistance. Moving higher, the 0.7440 area capped the pair for a few consecutive days in January and is a strong resistance line. The next resistance line is 0.7523, the swing high back in November. It’s followed by 0.7634, another swing high back in October. Looking down, 0.7250 was a stepping stone for the kiwi on its way up and also in April, and provides minor support. Lower, 0.7160 provided support recently and worked as a resistance line in June – it’s now a significant support line. Below, 0.71 had a role in July and also back in November as a support line. More serious support appears at 0.70, the round number that is closely eyed by many traders. The last support line for now is at 0.69, which capped the kiwi after the downfall in May. I am bearish on the kiwi. Despite the recent gains, New Zealand doesn’t enjoy the strong fundamentals of its neighbor. I believe that the pause in rate hikes will take its toll on the currency. Further reading:
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USD/JPY Outlook – September 13-17 Posted: 11 Sep 2010 10:00 AM PDT The internal elections in Japan’s ruling party are the main theme this week, among other events. Here’s an outlook for the Japanese events and an updated technical analysis for the falling USD/JPY. USD/JPY daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: There has been a lot of talk about an intervention to weaken the yen. Only a coordinated intervention can have a long term effect. Will it happen this week? Or will the talk continue? Let’s start:
All times are GMT. USD/JPY Technical Analysis USD/JPY began the week by dropping lower, setting a fresh 15-year low at 83.34. It didn’t stay there too long and gradually climbed higher, to close at 84.16. 84.80, which was a support line in August and also a swing low in November, now serves a strong resistance line. Above this line, the next line that will cap the dollar in case of surge is the 86.30 line which was a support line twice in July. Higher, 88 was a cushioned the pair in October, March and May. Higher, there are two lines close to each other – 89.15 was a resistance line in July and a support line in May, and 89.75, a weaker line, which provided support in March. Downtrend channel – the recent descent of USD/JPY is characterized in an imperfect downtrend channel – the downtrend resistance was formed from the 89.15 line and continued with two perfect touches. The downtrend support that was formed earlier (in June) served as perfect support three times since then, but was also violated briefly once. I am bullish on USD/JPY. The talks about intervention are mounting – while they have proved fruitless up to now, there’s a chance of an intervention due to the depth this pair reached, and the internal political tensions that the currency is causing in Japan. Only a globally coordinated intervention will have a big long term impact. Further reading:
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EUR/USD Outlook – September 13-17 Posted: 11 Sep 2010 06:00 AM PDT The important German ZEW Economic Sentiment is the highlight among 6 events that will shape the Euro’s trading this week, in addition to fresh news about the continent’s debt problems. Here’s an outlook for these events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: The European debt issues made a comeback in the past week, with new articles that recycled old news, and also fresh headlines from Ireland and from the Basel III decision. Will the downfall continue? Let’s start:
All times are GMT. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Euro began the week by challenging the 1.2930 line (mentioned in last week’s outlook). After failing to break higher, a sharp drop sent it quickly down, and it continued the week by ranging between 1.2770 and 1.2660, and finally closed at 1.2679. EUR/USD is now between 1.2660 which held it in the past week and also in the previous week, and 1.2770, that worked as a resistance line at the end of August as well. Looking up, the 1.2840 line continues to provide minor resistance after capping the Euro in August. Higher, 1.2930 strengthened its position in the past week, and also successfully held the pair a few weeks ago. Higher, 1.30 is a round psychological number that is closely watched, and it’s followed by 1.3110, which supported the pair back in May and later worked as resistance. There are more lines above, but they’re too far now. Looking down below 1.2660, the next line of support is quite close and quite strong – 1.2610 was a resistance line in July, and recently worked as support. Below, 1.2460 stopped the rise back in June and is now a support line. Lower, 1.2330, the 2008 “Lehman” low is the next minor line of support, and it’s followed by 1.2150, which worked as a strong support line in May through July. The round number of 1.20 is the last significant line. I remain bearish on the Euro. As mentioned in previous weeks, the Euro-zone’s problems didn’t really go away. The burden of debt isn’t the problem of “Club-Med” countries alone – it impacts other countries as well via bank lending. This pair receives excellent reviews on the web:
Further reading:
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