| Forex Weekly Outlook – August 23-27 Posted: 21 Aug 2010 01:05 AM PDT 
Revisions of GDP in the US and the UK, and major housing sector figures in the US are among the highlights of the upcoming week. Here’s an outlook for the major market moving events. Risk aversion took over the markets once again on fears of global slowdown. Friday was a great day for the US dollar, with EUR/USD breaking long term support. Will this continue? - US Existing Home Sales: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The housing sector’s slump causes many worries about the recovery. Sales of existing homes decreased in the past three months to 5.37 million. Another drop is expected now, a big one – to only 4.63 million. Note that most sales of homes are of existing ones making this figure very important.
- German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Wednesday at 8:00 GMT. This wide survey of 7000 businesses tends to see the bright side. It jumped to 106.2 points last month, boosting the Euro. It’s expected to remain at similar levels this time, ticking down to 105.9 points. The ZEW Economic Sentiment last week was very disappointing.
- US Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The value of purchase orders of durable goods (over 3 years) dropped in the past two months, weakening the US dollar. After a drop of 1.2% last month, orders are expected to make a sharp correction this time – 3.1% – very high expectations. Also core durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.6%, after a 0.9% drop last month.
- US New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Complementing on existing home sales, this figure will probably rise, but only very modestly to 335K, after reaching a low level of 330K last month. New home sales are very dependent on government aid, and fail to recover on their own.
- US Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This weekly gauge of employment causes lots of worries, and no hope is seen in the near future. Jobless claims already reached the alarming number of 500K last week. A rise above 500K will be even more alarming, while a drop under 430K will be a sign of relief. Expectations are for a drop back down to 483K.
- Japanese Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The “war on deflation” that Japan fights is only partially successful. The annual drop in prices squeezed from 2% a few months ago to 1.3% last month. This early inflation indicator is expected to remain almost unchanged, sliding to 1.2%. A drop under 1% will be welcomed by the yen.
- British Revised GDP: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The initial release of GDP for the second quarter was very impressing – a growth rate of 1.1%, much better than expected. A confirmation of this number in the second release will be positive for the Pound, but a small downwards revision is now possible. Any result will shake the markets.
- Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. After many months of rises, this critical Swiss gauge remained unchanged last month at 2.23 points. The composite index of 12 indicators is expected to edge up this time to 2.27 points, boosting the Swissy.
- US GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The first release of GDP was very disappointing – only 2.4% (annualized). This significant slowdown triggered fears of a double dip recession. And now, the revision will probably make it worse – only 1.5% in Q2. Any result will rock the markets and will provide a strong end to the week.
- Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking on Friday at 14:00 GMT at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The chairman of the Federal Reserve, that made a groundbreaking move of buying bonds and stating the economy is growing a a modest pace, will have a chance to do it once again. His speech is titled “The Economic Outlook and the Federal Reserve’s Policy Response”. He’ll supply a strong ending to this week.
In addition to Bernanke, also other high ranking policymakers will attend the Jackson Hole Symposium, beginning on Thursday. Any interesting remarks can rock the markets. That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverages on specific currencies, including technical analysis. Further reading: Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.. |
| Forex Links for the Weekend Posted: 20 Aug 2010 02:00 PM PDT 
After a busy week of tense range trading, the markets are now closed, and it’s time to sit back and enjoy some long-term forex-related articles. Here are the picks. Enjoy: - Andrei lays out the third part of series about the “biggest forex scam”. In a related matter, also signal providers may be problematic. If you’re getting alerts, better have something straightforward and simple, that just updates on prices, like this provider of forex SMS alerts.
- Adam Kritzer examines the correlation between US National Debt and the US dollar. It’s not necessarily what you think.
- Macro Man analyzes how China benefits from the moves by the Federal Reserve.
- Michael Greenberg reports that the CFTC Final Regulations are due soon, and brings an interesting analysis about the state of regulation.
- Francesc Riverola also discusses the new regulation that is expected and focuses on changes that the NFA already made after the CFTC audit.
- Casey Stubbs talks about the foundations of forex success.
- Boris Schlossberg asks if M&A activity could push USD/CAD to parity.
- James Chen explains how to use Bollinger BandWidth in forex trading.
That’s it for now. Have a great weekend! Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.. |
| Stand Out And Prosper Or Conform And Fail Posted: 20 Aug 2010 05:42 AM PDT 
Guest post from visionsofaffluence.com There are times when following the pack is great. Like if you're walking down the street and you see all the people ahead of you turning and running in the opposite direction, its probably a good idea for you to do the same. In fact it's the natural response and part of the reason why we have survived this long as a species however, this natural inclination to follow the lead of others is not always helpful, and in the case of trading it can be detrimental to your success. You see trading is a field where at any given moment the vast majority of its participants will be wrong. This is because the only way to trade effectively is to buy when prices are too low and to sell when they are too high. In other words if the entire world is screaming buy then you need to sell and vice versa. Just think about it, how often have you been reading posts on your favorite trading forum and seen that the majority of the traders there are convinced that the market is going to move one way and then it does the exact opposite? This is the basis of age old adage buy low and sell high unfortunately most people don't follow that school of the thought. Instead they buy when prices are high because they think it will move higher and sell when they are low because they think they will move lower. These people are almost always wrong and if you follow them you will be too. So, if you ever want any chance at being successful in this business then you have to develop the ability and courage to do the opposite of what everyone else is doing. You have to let go of the urge to conform and use your own brain and abilities to determine the right course of action. Do that and you will be well on your way to becoming a successful trader. If you want to discover what it takes to be able to trade for a living. Then visit visionsofaffluence.com Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.. |
No comments:
Post a Comment