Posted: 18 Aug 2010 11:25 PM PDT

Guest post from visionsofaffluence.com

If you think that trading is going to be a magic bullet that is going to make you rich overnight with little effort then I’m sorry to have to be the one to break it to you but you are dead wrong. I mean I don’t blame you for thinking that because from the outside looking in trading does look pretty easy. You look at trading in the movies and on television and what do you see? A bunch of guys sitting around at their computers looking at charts and making obscene amounts of money, and once you go online you are bombarded with ads hyping some system that is going to make you rich overnight. All of this adds up to people having unrealistic expectations as to what it takes to make it in this business.

The reality is that it takes a lot of hard work and dedication to become a successful trader, but the media and marketers never show that. They never show the hours you will spend going over charts or the money you will lose when you first start out. They never show the emotional turmoil you will go through as you lose trades over and over and begin to feel like you will never make it as a trader, and most importantly they will never show you what it truly takes to be a successful trader and that is perseverance.

That’s right most important thing a trader can posses is the ability to persevere. You can have the best system in the world and the fanciest software, but if you don’t have what it takes to make through your early days as a trader then you will never make it in this business. Success is not going to happen overnight it takes time and effort, but if you are willing to work through the tough times then there is no limit to what you can accomplish in this business.

So to all my aspiring traders out there don’t give up. I know how hard it is when you first start out and you have no clue what is going on but don’t let it discourage you because the reward in the end is truly worth it. You may feel like you are the worst trader in the history of the world but if you are willing to keep struggling and keep learning then I promise that you will be successful. You just have to keep working.

If you want to discover what it takes to be able to trade for a living. Then visit visionsofaffluence.com

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..

EUR/USD Aug. 19: Euro Tests Long Term Support

Posted: 18 Aug 2010 10:09 PM PDT

Another attempt to break higher failed yesterday, and the long term uptrend support is getting closer. Will it break on this busy day? Here’s a quick update on fundamentals, technicals and community trends.

EUR/USD approaching long term support line – click to enlarge

EUR/USD Technicals

Asian session: Busy session – EUR/USD broke down under yesterday’s range from to the vicinity of .28.
Current Range is narrower: 1.2787 to 1.2930. Significant support at 1.2787. Explanation below.
Further levels: Below, 1.2722, 1.2611, and 1.2460. Above 1.30, 1.3114 and 1.3267.
Medium term: On August 10th, EUR/USD lost a steep uptrend channel that began on June 29th. It is now consolidating.
Long term: Less steep uptrend channel began on June 7th, from the year-to-date low of 1.1876 and continues to support the pair. For today, it stands on 1.2787. A loss of this level will trigger a sharp fall.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

6:00 GMT: German PPI. Exp. 0.2%.
12:30 GMT: US Unemployment Claims. Exp. drop from 484K to 478K.
14:00 GMT: US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Exp. Rise from 5.1 to 7.1 points.

EUR/USD Sentiment

Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive.
Important US indicators will cause choppy trading around them.
Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long. This is a small shift towards longs- yesterday it was 57:43. These are 902 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..

Forex Daily Outlook – August 19 2010

Posted: 18 Aug 2010 02:00 PM PDT

Very busy day filled with interesting and varied news. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index in the US, James Bullard speaks in Arkansas, Retail Sales in Great Britain, , German PPI in Europe and more. Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the US, Unemployment Claims, The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week decreased by 5K, the nation’s earliest economic data, and the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

Later in the US, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, monthly survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions; indicates improving conditions 7.2 points, It’s a leading indicator of economic health, changes in businesses sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

Finally in the US, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard speaks about the US economy at the John Q Hammond Center, in Arkansas. Affects the nation’s key interest rates and the future monetary policy.

In Canada, Leading Index, the level of a composite index based on 10 economic indicators increased by 6% and this index is designed to predict the direction of the economy.

More in Canada, Wholesale Sales, the total value of sales at the wholesale level increased by 5% and it’s a leading indicator of consumer spending – retailers generally order more goods from wholesalers when they expect consumer sales to increase.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

in Europe, German Producer Price Index (PPI), the price of goods sold by manufacturers has decreased by 4% and It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when manufacturers charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Retail Sales, the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level that Released monthly, has decreased by 3% and it’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

More in Great Britain, Prelim Mortgage Approvals, Number of new mortgages approved for home purchases during the previous month has decreased by 1K, and It’s a leading indicator of housing market demand – most home purchases are financed with a mortgage, so it provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are entering the market;

Later in Great Britain, Public Sector Net Borrowing, in value between spending and income for public corporations, the central government, and local governments during the previous month has decreased by 9.4B and indicates a budget deficit.

Finally in Britain, Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Order Expectations, Monthly Survey of about 550 manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of order volume expected during the next 3 months, indicates expectations are for lower volume on -14 points.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, Trade Balance, the Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month has increased by 0.09B and indicates that more goods were exported than imported.

More in Switzerland, Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Economic Expectations, ac Monthly Survey of institutional investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for Switzerland indicates optimism of 2.2 points.

In New Zealand, Visitor Arrivals, the number of short-term overseas visitors who arrived in the country stabilizes on 3%. Tourism plays an important role in the economy – about 10% of the population is employed by the tourism industry, and a sizable portion of the nation’s GDP is indirectly related to tourism.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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