USDCHF Daily Forecast: October 05

The USDCHF made a significant technical movement on Friday as price violated the bullish channel to the downside. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting at least 1.0250 but market volatility lately makes my medium term outlook remains neutral. The best place to put a short position is waiting for price to retreat higher near the bullish channel lower line and we see rejection to move above 1.0380 resistance area with a tight stop loss if price go back inside the bullish channel.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: October 05

The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 88.59 but whipsawed to the upside and closed at 89.79. At the same time, the bearish continuation failure followed by an important technical event as price slipper above the trendline resistance (blue). Although it’s too early for a bullish view, it’s clear that the bearish scenario is now in critical phase as bearish pressure seems to begin to lose some momentum. Consistent move above the trendline should trigger further bullish momentum targeting at least 90.40 area. However if price reject to move consistently above the trendline, the bearish scenario should remains intact. Immediate support at 89.30 followed by 88.50.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: October 05

The GBPUSD also had indecisive movement on Friday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.5808 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.5944. On h4 chart below we can see that after break below the trendline support (orange, now become resistance) and bottomed at 1.5805 price retreated higher back at the trendline. I think this is a normal movement and as long as price stay below the trendline and 1.6000 area, I prefer a downside scenario. However break above the trendline and consistent move above 1.6000 area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6113 area. Immediate support at 1.5905. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum.

GBPJPY Forecast September 18

The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the trendline resistance (red) and topped at 151.18 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 149.77 and go back below the trendline resistance. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 149.02 – 148.60 key support area. Immediate resistance at 150.40. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

USDCHF Daily Forecast: September 18

The USDCHF made another moderate bearish momentum, bottomed at 1.0275 and closed at 1.0281. Slowly but sure, the pair keep moving lower and now traded below 1.0300 area. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0210 area. I do not see any reversal/correction signal so far, so I am hoping further downside pressure. Immediate resistance at 1.0325 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone and might go higher re-testing 1.0420 area.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 18

The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday. However, on h1 chart below we can see that the trendline resistance (red) has been violated to the upside at the same time price is making a new bullish channel (blue channel) indicating potential further upside correction testing 91.80 key resistance area. As long as the pair stay below that area I still prefer bearish scenario, but I will stay out for now. Immediate support at 90.70. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 90.20 key support area.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: September 18

The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.6567 but failed to break above my 1.6580 resistance area before whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.6425 and closed at 1.6446. On h4 chart below we can see that the upper line of the bearish channel did a good job keeping the bearish scenario intact. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.6350 area (50% Fibo of 1.6113 – 1.6740) and the lower line of the bearish channel. CCI just cross the -100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential further weakness for the Sterling. Immediate resistance at 1.6480 – 1.6500 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

EURUSD Daily Forecast: September 18

The EURUSD made another moderate bullish momentum, topped at 1.4766 and closed at 1.4743. The bias remains bullish in nearest term with potential targets at 1.4825 (September 23 2008 high) and 1.4867 (September 22 2008 high). On h4 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in the rising wedge area and we really have just a very little room left before the break. I think I will keep out from the market until we have a break from the rising wedge. The best place to put a long position is still around the rising wedge lower line but with only so little room left in the rising wedge, the risk-reward ratio is not too good at this phase. I know this situation really test our patient. It’s clear that we are in bullish momentum and Dollar remains under pressure but I can not (and will not) ignore any potential reversal/correction signal. Immediate support at 1.4630 followed by 1.4550.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 17

The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 90.11 but further bearish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 90.89. On h1 chart below we can see that the 90.20 area which connected by the red horizontal line has been a strong support so far. On the upside, the trendline resistance and 91.80 area are my key level resistance area at this phase. As long as the pair stay below that area I still prefer a downside scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing the trendline resistance area but I will stay out for now as the bearish scenario remains intact. A violation to the trendline resistance should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 91.80 area.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: September 17

The GBPUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped between 38.2% – 50% Fibo retracement of 1.6113 – 1.6740. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and I think we are still in no trading zone now. Be patient and do not rush jump into the market. The key levels at this phase is 1.6400 support and 1.6580 resistance. Break below 1.6400 should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.6200 while break above 1.6580 should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6740 area.

EURUSD Daily Forecast: September 17

The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4736 and closed at 1.4707. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in rising wedge area. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4800 area. However, the rising wedge on h4 chart and CCI divergence on daily chart I showed you yesterday still give valid bearish reversal/warning, so I will keep stay out for now. If the rising wedge violated to the upside, that would be a bearish reversal scenario failure and would give me a bullish set up. At this phase, potential place to put a long position at is the around the rising wedge lower line with very tight stop loss below it. Short positions is not recommended unless we really have a valid rising wedge breakdown. Immediate support at 1.4640 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could be considered as a breakdown to the rising wedge and could lead us back to 1.4570 or even 1.4446 area.

USDCHF Daily Forecast: September 16

The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday. The pair is now clearly in consolidation phase where bearish momentum seem exhausted, but we also haven’t seen significant bullish correction yet. On daily chart below you can see that in the last 4 days, the pair formed 2 inverted hammer and 2 Doji  indicating an intense battle between buyers and sellers with no winner so far. This situation is one of the market condition where I prefer to stay out and just wait for further development. Immediate support at 1.0300 – 1.0250 area. Initial resistance at 1.0420.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 16

The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday but failed to break above 91.80 before whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 91.00. The way I see it, the bullish correction phase might over now and we are ready for a bearish continuation outlook. The bias is bearish in nearest term re-testing 90.20 area. Immediate resistance at 91.60/80 area. Break above that area should be seen as a potential threat to the current bearish outlook. CCI just cross the -100 line down on h1 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: September 16

The GBPUSD made another bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6401 but closed higher at 1.6485. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel has been convincingly violated to the downside indicating bullish failure. Price break below 1.6500 area (38.2% Fibo retracement of 1.6113 – 1.6740), slipped below the 50% Fibo but pullback to the upside and now struggling around 38.2% Fibo area around 1.6500. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I prefer a downside scenario testing 1.6353 area (61.8% Fibo). Immediate resistance at 1.6530. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

GBPJPY Forecast September 16

The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 151.74 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 149.44. On my h4 chart below we can see that after had a significant bearish momentum from 163.05 and hit 149.02, the pair has been corrected higher but never really able to stay above the 23.6% Fibo before fell below it again. The bias is bearish in nearest term re-testing 149.02. Immediate resistance at 150.30. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

EURUSD Daily Forecast: September 15

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4514 but further bearish pressure was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.4651 and closed at 1.4627. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4719 area but I think the situation here could be very tricky. On my h4 below I see a rising wedge formation indicating a potential warning of bearish reversal (correction). The price is now around the upper line of the bullish channel, so a downside correction is actually logic at this phase. However short positions is not recommended.

At the time I wrote this comment, the pair is traded around 1.4630 area, about 60 pips higher from my nearest support around 1.4570 area, which in my opinion is the best level to place a buy position with a very tight stop loss below the rising wedge lower line because if the rising wedge violated to the downside, the next downside correction target would be 1.4446 area. I don’t like my risk-reward ratio from here. I know the current strong bullish momentum is really tempting, but knowing the direction is never enough in forex trading. We need to be patient and consistent with our money management planning.

USDCHF Daily Forecast: September 15

The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.0422 but further bullish correction was limited as the pair closed lower at 1.0336. On daily chart below, we have another inverted hammer so bullish correction warning is still there. I still prefer a bearish scenario but I think it’s better to stay out at this phase. Yes, the current bearish momentum is strong and tempting but I will never ignore any correction/reversal warning. Immediate support at 1.0300 – 1.0250. Initial resistance at 1.0422 (yesterday’s high) followed by 1.0527.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 15

The hanging man formation gave us a valid warning of a bearish correction yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.6520 and closed at 1.6576. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish momentum can not really made a violation to the bullish channel yet as the price still struggling around the bullish channel lower line. The bullish scenario remains intact and I still prefer an upside scenario, but I think it’s better to keep out from the market now. Immediate resistance at 1.6655 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6740 area. Initial support at 1.6500. Valid break below that area should be seen as potential bullish failure.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: September 15

The hanging man formation gave us a valid warning of a bearish correction yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.6520 and closed at 1.6576. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish momentum can not really made a violation to the bullish channel yet as the price still struggling around the bullish channel lower line. The bullish scenario remains intact and I still prefer an upside scenario, but I think it’s better to keep out from the market now. Immediate resistance at 1.6655 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6740 area. Initial support at 1.6500. Valid break below that area should be seen as potential bullish failure.