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Reflecting on the Chinese Yuan Revaluation
Jul 20, 3:24AM
Today marks the one-month anniversary of China’s decision to remove the Yuan’s peg to the Dollar, and allow it to float. Now that the news has had a chance to wend its way through the financial markets, I think it’s time both to reflect and to forecast. Over the last month, the Chinese RMB has appreciated [...]
Euro Rally: Temporary or Permanent?
Jul 17, 3:28PM
Since the beginning of June, the Euro has rallied by an impressive 8% against the US Dollar, and by comparable margins against other currencies. The question on every one’s minds, of course, is whether this represents a temporary pullback or a permanent correction. The arguments in favor of the former are pretty strong. Namely, EUR/USD bearish [...]
Japanese Yen and the Irony of Debt
Jul 13, 5:15PM
Since my last update in June, the Japanese Yen has continued to creep up. It has risen a solid 5% in the year-to-date against the Dollar, 12% against the Pound, and an earth-shattering 20% against the Euro. It is closing in on a 15-year high of 85 Yen/Dollar, and beyond that, the all-time high of [...]
US Apathetic about Dollar
Jul 12, 3:26AM
Recently, it struck me: the US does not care about the Dollar. If you look at fiscal and monetary policy, there is actually a remarkable degree of consistency. Both reflect a clear disregard for the conditions that are necessary for a strong currency. This might seem ridiculous, given the Dollar’s amazing performance of late. It has [...]
New Zealand Dollar Thriving in Obscurity
Jul 09, 5:18AM
It’s understandable that forex investors basically ignore New Zealand. Its economy is around 10% the size of its neighbor Australia, its currency is less liquid, and spreads are higher. Given that its performance closely tracks the Australian Dollar, meanwhile, why pay it any attention? To be sure, the new currencies from Down Under trade in virtual [...]
US Dollar Paradigm Shift
Jul 07, 9:55AM
Since the inception of the financial crisis, the Dollar has been treated as a safe haven currency. Simply, when there was a surge in the level of risk-aversion, the Dollar rose proportionally. When risk aversion gave way to risk appetite, the Dollar fell. It was as simple as that. Lately, this notion has manifested itself in [...]
Markets Confused about Canadian Dollar
Jul 02, 3:49PM
On a trade-weighted basis, the Canadian Dollar (aka Loonie) has appreciated nearly 10% in 2010. At the same time, it has fallen 8% against the Dollar since the beginning of May. This contradiction is reflected in an explosion in volatility: “CAD has been very volatile – the average intraday spread between the high and low [...]
Emerging Markets Rally, Despite Eurozone Debt Crisis
Jun 29, 6:06AM
It looks like emerging market investors took my last post (“Investors” Shouldn't Worry about the Euro) to heart, since emerging markets (EM) have continued to rally in spite of the Euro’s woes. To be sure, EM stocks, bonds, and currencies all dipped slightly in May when the crisis reached fever pitch, but they have since [...]
"Investors" Shouldn't Worry about the Euro
Jun 26, 6:00AM
With today’s post, I want to take off my currency trader hat and put on my investor hat. You might be tempted to argue: But wait, these two aren’t mutually exclusive. Isn’t it possible to wear both hats? While it’s theoretically plausible for a trader to take a long-term view of the markets based on fundamental [...]
China Revalues RMB….by .4%
Jun 24, 6:25AM
It was only last week that I mused about “Further Delays in RMB Revaluation.” Lo and behold, over the weekend, the Central Bank finally budged, by pledging to the members of the G20 that it would ” ‘proceed further with reform‘ of the exchange rate and ‘enhance’ flexibility.” Upon reading this, I suppose I should [...]
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