Forex Crunch EUR/USD – This is Resistance |
- EUR/USD – This is Resistance
- Your System Means Nothing… Unless You Master This Principle You Are Doomed To Fail
- Forex Daily Outlook – July 28 2010
- Fundamental Overview – Market Movers Last Week – 7/26/2010
| Posted: 28 Jul 2010 01:06 AM PDT
EUR/USD is flirting with the 1.30 line and currently fails to make the breakout that many people are waiting for – resistance is very strong. In the narrowing uptrend channel, it will soon have to make a decision. EUR/USD already crossed the psychological level of 1.30 on July 16th, peaking at 1.3007. 4 days later, it also crossed this line, reaching a higher peak – 1.3027. It also traded above the line yesterday and today, with the recent peak being 1.3046. But it doesn’t really make the strong breakout that many people are expecting. In the graph above (you can click to enlarge), you can see the narrowing uptrend channel on a daily graph. While the Euro can continue rising inside the channel, its steepness will probably not hold the pair for a long time – it will have to choose a direction – breaking above the channel and running faster, or sliding sideways and eventually falling out of it. Regarding support and resistance lines, 1.3114 is a strong resistance line, followed by 1.3267 and 1.3435. Below, 1.2880 and 1.2670 are important lines. More lines can be seen in the EUR/USD forecast. EUR/USD Fundamentals More US weakness has sent the pair higher. The latest sign was the CB Consumer Confidence, that fell sharply to 50.4 points. Today’s durable goods orders from the US could supply more fuel. But this isn’t enough. The Euro needs its own good figures to rise. Tomorrow, Thursday, the Euro will get a figure that usually exceeds expectations – the German unemployment change. Germany is doing far better than the other countries in the Euro-zone. If the figure will be good once again, the Euro could ride on it. There are no other significant European figures that day. But if it doesn’t make it, Friday brings a related figure, but for the whole region – the European unemployment rate. At 10%, no good news are expected. There are other figures on Friday, but this is the most important one. So, Thursday has a better chance of seeing an upside breakout in EUR/USD. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..       |
| Your System Means Nothing… Unless You Master This Principle You Are Doomed To Fail Posted: 27 Jul 2010 11:01 PM PDT
Guest post from visionsofaffluence.com There is one component of trading that is a necessity if you wish to become a successful trader and that is money management. With proper money management your trading potential is unlimited, without it you will fail. Too many new traders come into this business and focus only on how much money they can make without any attention to what they could lose. These traders may have some success in the beginning, but eventually they will suffer losses that will debilitate their accounts and leave them with nothing. All of their profits will be gone and they will be demoralized. Many of these traders never recover and stop trading for good. Successful traders on the other hand realize that the true goal of a trader is not to make money but rather it is to preserve their capital. A traders number one priority should be to minimize losses not maximize gains because trying to maximize gains will put a trader in a bad position. They will end up risking more money than is safe for their account size and if that money is lost then they will have to work twice as hard to get it back. You have to trade as if your capital is the most precious thing in the world to you. Never open a trade with the belief that you are going to win no matter what because if there is one thing a seasoned trader knows its that as soon as you start to think you are a trading god the market will be sure to remind you of just how human you really are. So, before you take a trade don’t ask yourself “how much can I make” instead ask “how much am I willing to lose if this trade goes bad” and always make sure that number is never more than 2-3% of your account. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..    |
| Forex Daily Outlook – July 28 2010 Posted: 27 Jul 2010 02:00 PM PDT
Important and interested news today, in the US Durable Goods Orders, in Australia some changes in the CPI and Trimmed Mean CPI, let’s see what await us today. In the US Durable Goods Orders, a leading indicator of economic activity measuring durable goods orders placed with domestic manufacturers, The U.S. manufacturers may need to speed up production based on the anticipated increase in orders for durable goods by up to 0.9% in June, compared with the 0.6% decline in May.
Later in the US, Crude Oil Inventories, the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week decreases by 1 million and influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods. Finally in the US, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); Beige Book, Anecdotal evidence supplied by the 12 Federal Reserve banks regarding local economic conditions in their district;, traders will watch closely if the Beige Book's assessment on the economy confirms the Fed Chairman's "unusually uncertain" economic outlook. In Europe, German Prelim Consumer Price Index (CPI), the price of goods and services purchased by consumers increased by 1%, Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis. In Great Britain, Bank of England (BOE); Governor Mervyn King testifies, along with BOE MPC Members Charles Bean, Paul Fisher, David Miles, and Andrew Sentance on monetary policy and financial stability before the Treasury Select Committee, in London, and influence the nation’s currency. Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast. In Australia, Consumer Price Index (CPI) the price of goods and services purchased by consumers increased by 1%. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. And the Trimmed Mean CPI the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 30% of items is stabilized on 0.8%. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast. In New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ); Interest Rate Statement, The recent strengthening of the Kiwi against the U.S. dollar and other lower-yielding currencies should not come as a surprise since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely-anticipated to follow the footsteps of the Bank of Canada and deliver another 0.25% interest rate hike, bringing the official cash rate in New Zealand to 3.0%. Later in New Zealand, NBNZ Business Confidence Survey of about 1,500 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative 12-month economic outlook and measures the Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, indicates optimism and an early signal of future economic activity. More in New Zealand, Official Cash Rate, the Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks, Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future, increased up to 3%. Finally in New Zealand Trade Balance, the Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month, droops down from 814M to 359M, but indicates that more goods were exported than imported and export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; In Japan, Retail Sales, the total value of sales at the retail level; increases by 0.5% – the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. That’s it for today. Happy forex trading! Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.    |
| Fundamental Overview – Market Movers Last Week – 7/26/2010 Posted: 27 Jul 2010 09:32 AM PDT
Guest post by ForexTraders.com Last week saw the U.S. Dollar again trade softer against most of the other major currencies. Also, commodity prices mostly gained, with crude oil gaining 3.9% to close at $78.98 per barrel, with a predictably positive effect on the Australian and Canadian Dollars. Nevertheless, the price of gold closed virtually unchanged at $1,187.80 versus the $1,188.20 close seen the previous week. As was also seen the previous week in the wake of dovish comments contained in the FOMC Meeting Minutes, last week again saw investors' unease about the U.S. economy grow considerably, with a sustainable recovery in the United States still seen as years away. Market Concerned About Fed Chair Bernanke's Comments Additional U.S. Dollar weakness seen last week came largely on the back of worrisome comments made on Wednesday by Fed Chairman Bernanke. In congressional testimony, Bernanke confessed to having "unusual uncertainty" about the U.S. economy. These comments exacerbated existing concerns in the markets over a double dip recession in the United States that were fueled by the previous week's dovish FOMC comments. Dollar's Response Mixed Versus European and Asian Majors Despite Bernanke's comments, the Greenback managed to rise by 0.8% against the Japanese Yen after the BOJ indicated that it remained satisfied with its present loose monetary policy stance. Also, the Dollar was virtually unchanged against the Euro over the week. The Euro fell only -0.1% versus the Greenback after positive — although somewhat questionable — European bank stress test results were released. Nevertheless, Cable rose 0.8% over the week as the Pound Sterling benefitted from better than expected U.K. Retail Sales numbers, as well as an unexpectedly positive improvement in U.K. GDP by 1.1% over the last quarter. Commodity Dollars Rise on Higher Oil Costs Furthermore, rising oil prices helped strengthen most of the Commodity Dollars, as the U.S. Dollar fell 1.8% versus the Canadian Dollar. In doing so, the Greenback erased most of its gains of the previous week, with the Loonie further assisted in its rise by an across the board interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. The Australian Dollar was also up an impressive 3.1% versus the Greenback on the back of renewed inflationary concerns in Australia, with key Australian CPI data coming out this week that could well spark further market movement in AUDUSD. In addition, the New Zealand Dollar rose 2.2% last week, despite little economic news out in New Zealand. Market makers priced the currency higher most likely in anticipation of another rate hike widely anticipated in New Zealand by the RBNZ in their rate decision to be announced this coming week. Weekly Recap and Outlook for the U.S. Financial Markets and Dollar – 7/26/2010 The Greenback was under pressure last week, especially versus the commodity dollars which all rose significantly. Strength in the commodity currencies was usually attributed to stronger oil and commodity prices, as well as higher yields and increasing interest rate differentials favoring those currencies versus the U.S. Dollar. Read full report Weekly Recap and Outlook for EURUSD – 7/26/2010 EURUSD began the week on a positive note despite negative news on several fronts, including the E.U. and the IMF suspending talks with Hungary which was urged to cut its budget deficit before being allowed additional access to bailout funds. Also, Moody's downgraded its debt rating for Ireland to Aa2 from Aa1. In terms of economic releases, Monday saw the Eurozone Current Account showing a deficit of -5.8B, considerably higher than the -3.0B consensus. The rate continued rising on Tuesday making its weekly high of 1.3028 as German PPI increased by 0.6% month on month, considerably better than the 0.2% expected increase. Read full report Weekly Recap and Outlook for GBPUSD – 7/26/2010 GBPUSD began the week trading lower on Monday as the U.K. Rightmove HPI declined by -0.6% versus an increase of 0.3% for the previous reading. The rate firmed somewhat on Tuesday, despite U.K. Preliminary Mortgage Approvals declining to 48K versus a consensus of 52K expected, while Public Sector Borrowing increased to 14.5B versus the 13.2B expected, with the previous number revised upward to 17.1B from 16B. Also on Tuesday, U.K. CBI Industrial Order Expectations declined to a reading of -16, much better than the reading of -24 expected. Read full report Weekly Recap and Outlook for AUDUSD – 7/26/2010 AUDUSD gained considerable ground last week as renewed appetite for risk returned to the markets. The pair began the week trading off of its weekly low of 0.8632 made on Monday before rallying ahead of the RBA's Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for June to be released the next day. The minutes confirmed that the RBA is committed to controlling inflation, stating that "headline inflation is expected to rise", and that "the important question for the board at the next meeting would be whether the new information materially changed the medium term outlook for inflation". This gave rise to speculation of a further RBA rate hike, possibly as soon as the next RBA Monetary Policy meeting on August 3rd and focused attention on the upcoming CPI data for Australia due out this week. Read full report Weekly Recap and Outlook for NZDUSD – 7/26/2010 NZDUSD showed considerable strength last week as renewed risk appetite drove the rate higher. The rate started on a soft note with the pair gapping down on the Monday opening. NZDUSD then made its weekly low of 0.7027 before trading higher in the absence of any major economic releases out of New Zealand. The rate then started rallying sharply on Tuesday. Read full report Weekly Recap and Outlook for USDJPY – 7/26/2010 USDJPY gained overall last week in the absence of any major economic releases from Japan, with the exception of the BOJ's Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from its June 14-15th meeting that were released on Tuesday. USDJPY began the week by trading lower initially before then reversing and rallying. The pair made its weekly high of 87.56 on Tuesday despite weaker U.S. housing numbers, and ahead of the BOJ minutes release. Read full report Weekly Recap and Outlook for USDCAD – 7/26/2010 USDCAD declined significantly last week, giving back all of the previous week's gains. The Loonie started picking up steam on Monday as Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases showed an increase of almost 11B coming out at 23.16B, which was almost triple the amount expected of 8.05B and almost double the previous number of 12.36B. The number indicates the considerable interest that foreigners continue to have in investing in Canadian securities. Read full report Ready to connect with real Forex traders? Currensee is the first Forex trading social network.    |
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