Forex Crunch Forex Weekly Outlook – July 5-9

Posted: 03 Jul 2010 02:00 AM PDT

After the Non-Farm Payrolls, the upcoming week features many rate decisions and employment data from Australia and Canada. Here’s an outlook for the major events that will move the markets this week.

The debt issues in Europe, and the growing fear of a double dip recession, continue accompanying us all the time. The situation in the US isn’t much better… Let’s start:

American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. This figure is usually released before the Non-Farm Payrolls, and it will be interesting to see the impact of this timing, also during the Independence Day Weekend. The indicator has been positive, showing economic expansion (above 50) for some time. In the past 3 months, the score repeated itself – 55.4 points. A similar number is expected this time as well.
Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. After six rate hikes, Glenn Stevens paused last time. The rate hikes already took their toll on the housing market, yet employment continues to be good. The RBA will probably leave the rates unchanged once again at 4.5%, so the focus will be on the rate statement – hints for future moves.
Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. Last month’s Australian employment numbers were great, with a nice gain in jobs and a big drop in the unemployment rate to 5.2%. Both figures are expected to remain almost unchanged this time, but the Aussie (and also the kiwi) will shake on any outcome.
British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. After we’ve seen one member, Andrew Sentance, vote for a rate hike after seeing inflation rising, there’s a greater chance of it happening now. The Official Bank Rate stands on 0.5% for a long time. The rate statement, and especially any mention of inflation will be closely watched and will rock the Pound.
European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. JEan-Claude Trichet’s ECB isn’t expected to move the European Minimum Bid Rate. The dire situation in Europe is likely to result in leaving the rate at 1%. His words about the economic situation in the ECB Press Conference, 45 minutes later, will shake the Euro.
American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This weekly release is always of high significance, even if the changes are quite minor in recent weeks. A drop under 430K will be a positive sign, while a rise over 480K will be alarming.
Canadian employment data: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. Canada’s employment change number exceeded expectations in the past two months, rising above 100K two months ago and nearly 25K last month. The unemployment rate, which has stabilized at 8.1% in the past two months, isn’t expected to move this time.