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How About Those Stress Tests…
Jul 27, 3:04PM
What’s the deal with those stress tests? It sounds like the setup for a Jerry Seinfeld joke, and given the way the tests were viewed by the markets, it might as well have been. According to the EU, the tests were a tremendous success. According to investors, the results were irrelevant at best, and patently [...]
Forex Volatility to Remain High
Jul 24, 7:03AM
With the onset of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis this year, volatility levels in forex (as well as in other financial markets), surged to levels not seen since the height of the credit crisis. While volatility has subsided slightly over the last few months, it still remains above its average for the year, and significantly [...]
Emerging Markets Continue to Shine
Jul 21, 10:54AM
After a slight respite following the culmination of the Eurozone debt crisis, emerging markets financial markets are back to the their former selves, with stocks, bonds, and currencies all performing well. The rally is being driven by two principal factors. First, investors came to the gradual realization that the trend towards [...]
Reflecting on the Chinese Yuan Revaluation
Jul 20, 3:24AM
Today marks the one-month anniversary of China’s decision to remove the Yuan’s peg to the Dollar, and allow it to float. Now that the news has had a chance to wend its way through the financial markets, I think it’s time both to reflect and to forecast. Over the last month, the Chinese RMB has appreciated [...]
Euro Rally: Temporary or Permanent?
Jul 17, 3:28PM
Since the beginning of June, the Euro has rallied by an impressive 8% against the US Dollar, and by comparable margins against other currencies. The question on every one’s minds, of course, is whether this represents a temporary pullback or a permanent correction. The arguments in favor of the former are pretty strong. Namely, EUR/USD bearish [...]
Japanese Yen and the Irony of Debt
Jul 13, 5:15PM
Since my last update in June, the Japanese Yen has continued to creep up. It has risen a solid 5% in the year-to-date against the Dollar, 12% against the Pound, and an earth-shattering 20% against the Euro. It is closing in on a 15-year high of 85 Yen/Dollar, and beyond that, the all-time high of [...]
US Apathetic about Dollar
Jul 12, 3:26AM
Recently, it struck me: the US does not care about the Dollar. If you look at fiscal and monetary policy, there is actually a remarkable degree of consistency. Both reflect a clear disregard for the conditions that are necessary for a strong currency. This might seem ridiculous, given the Dollar’s amazing performance of late. It has [...]
New Zealand Dollar Thriving in Obscurity
Jul 09, 5:18AM
It’s understandable that forex investors basically ignore New Zealand. Its economy is around 10% the size of its neighbor Australia, its currency is less liquid, and spreads are higher. Given that its performance closely tracks the Australian Dollar, meanwhile, why pay it any attention? To be sure, the new currencies from Down Under trade in virtual [...]
US Dollar Paradigm Shift
Jul 07, 9:55AM
Since the inception of the financial crisis, the Dollar has been treated as a safe haven currency. Simply, when there was a surge in the level of risk-aversion, the Dollar rose proportionally. When risk aversion gave way to risk appetite, the Dollar fell. It was as simple as that. Lately, this notion has manifested itself in [...]
Markets Confused about Canadian Dollar
Jul 02, 3:49PM
On a trade-weighted basis, the Canadian Dollar (aka Loonie) has appreciated nearly 10% in 2010. At the same time, it has fallen 8% against the Dollar since the beginning of May. This contradiction is reflected in an explosion in volatility: “CAD has been very volatile – the average intraday spread between the high and low [...]
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