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EUR/USD: The Next Benchmark is Parity
Jun 05, 4:40PM
The Euro has now declined for six consecutive months against the Dollar. It is down 25% from its 2008 high and 15% in the year-to-date. It declined 8% in the month of May alone. En route to a four year low, the Euro also fell below the 50% retracement level ($1.21) of its rally from [...]
Japanese Yen: 90 or 95?
Jun 03, 12:39PM
After a healthy appreciation against the Dollar in 2009, the Yen has backed off slightly in 2010, hovering around the level of 90 USD/JPY. Still, every time the Yen falls, traders quickly push it back up to 90. One has to wonder: Will the Yen ever fall? Analysts attribute the Yen’s resilience to a series of [...]
Brazil is Booming, but Real is In Trouble
May 31, 5:26AM
Generally speaking, investors are bullish about Brazil. The emerging market superstar emerged from the credit crisis essentially unscathed, and some believe that "Brazil will be the world's fifth-biggest power by the next decade." This year, the IMF is forecasting GDP growth of 5.5%, while the Central Bank of Brazil is projecting 6%. But this post isn't [...]
Chinese Yuan as Reserve Currency
May 22, 10:47AM
Even before the sovereign debt crisis in Europe damped confidence in the world’s second most important reserve currency, the Chinese Yuan was on the cusp of being accepted as a global reserve currency. We’re all familiar with the arguments attacking the Yuan in this context: its currency is pegged, its capital controls are rigid, and its [...]
Failed Euro Bailout Would Buoy Yen
May 19, 4:50PM
Given that only a week has passed since the bailout of Greece was formally unveiled, it’s still too early to determine whether the plan will be success. Regardless of how it ultimately plays out, though, the bailout (not too mention the concomitant crisis) is shaping up to be THE big market mover of 2009. As [...]
When Will Attention Shift to the Dollar?
May 17, 12:51AM
The fiscal crisis ravaging the Euro and the Pound has sent the Dollar skyward. On the one hand, the prospect of continued uncertainty and dissolution of the Euro would seem to be an excellent harbinger for continued appreciation in the Dollar. On the other hand, it should only be a matter of time before investors [...]
Is There Any Hope for the Pound?
May 14, 3:09PM
Compared to the Euro, the Pound is Gold (figuratively speaking). Compared to everything else, well, the Pound is probably closer to linoleum. Bad geology metaphors notwithstanding, there really isn’t much to get excited about when looking at the Pound. Let’s take the election, for example. Originally billed as a chance for a fresh start, politically, for [...]
Euro Still Doomed, Despite Bailout
May 12, 3:23PM
In my last post, I reported that the markets were incredibly bearish on the Euro, due to concerns that the Greek debt crisis could neither be mitigated nor contained. By following up on this report with another incantation of Euro bearishness, I certainly run the risk of belaboring the point. Still, the fact that since [...]
Greek Debt Crisis Widens
May 06, 3:02PM
I must confess: I never expected the Greek debt crisis to reach such a dire threshold in such a short time period. Over a matter of mere months, the Euro has fallen 15% against the Dollar. That's the kind of drop that you would have expected from the Greek Drachma, not from the Euro! Moreover, it's [...]
Emerging Markets Mull Currency Controls
May 04, 2:19PM
The rally in emerging markets that I wrote about in April is showing no sign of abating. The MSCI emerging market stocks index is back to its pre-crisis level, while the EMBI+ emerging market bond index has surged to a record high. While no such index (that I know of) exists for emerging market currencies, [...]
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