Posted: 14 Jun 2010 01:31 AM PDT

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USD/CAD

The pair which at best is volatile during breakouts has been trading a considerably more volatile pattern over the last 30 days. A break above or below the 200 day moving average typically signals a change in long term outlook. However, we have seen the CAD bounce along the 200 day MA for the past month. There has been only one break below the 100 day MA which occurred in mid May. That break below was short lived as the lows traded below the 50 day MA but price was not able to close below the 50 MA. Friday's price action once again had a low that touched the 50 MA but eventually closed back at the 100 MA. A close below the 50 MA suggests further CAD strengthening while an inability to do so coupled with a close back above the 200 MA suggest market indirection. A close back above the prior high at 1.0610 implies the CAD run has probably run its course.

tech june14 cad

AUDUSD:

AUD bull skeptics site the Aussie inability to crack mid .9300 range as the reason it has fallen so far so fast. It formed at least a quadruple top, meaning the AUD retried the same level 4 times, and each time failed to close higher than that level. The major MA's (200, 100, and 50) certainly favor falling prices. However, we have to account for correlations between the price of Oil as well as price action on the NZD and CAD before we doom the AUD. The Aussie essentially closed at Resistance last week near .8500. The distance from price to the nearest major MA is significant enough that we normally expect the two to converge, but volatility is plaguing the market right now so until we see the AUD close above the 50 MA or close below .8050 on the daily chart, neither the bears or bulls will reign.

tech june14 aud

NZDUSD:

As we have noted before, if it were not for the price level on the chart you may almost think that the below daily chart is an AUD daily. The 2 currencies have a high correlation and economic interdependence which is highlighted by the identical price patterns. The major MA's order sequence once again imply a falling price environment. Unlike the AUD, the NZD has taken out near term Resistance. However, it will require a close back above the 50 day MA before the bulls can think about running once again. Meanwhile a close below Support at .6550 would suggest weakening will resume. Of course, keep in mind the commodity currencies correlation as strength in one pair may help boost the others.

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Zecco Now Supported On Currensee

Posted: 13 Jun 2010 11:35 PM PDT

Zecco, a large and successful American broker, is finally supported at Currensee – Zecco traders can now share their trades and use Currensee's social network for free. Hopefully all brokers will join the network and adopt transparency with social sites such as Currensee.

Zecco is an American broker that highlights low commissions. They don’t specialize specifically in forex, but they sure have extensive support for currency traders. Support of Zecco traders adds to Currensee’s support of Oanada, and over 100 forex brokers.

Are you a Zecco trader? Currensee’s platform is free. Check it out here.

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Forex Daily Outlook – June 14 2010

Posted: 13 Jun 2010 02:00 PM PDT

We start the week with a speech by James Bullard, New Motor Vehicle Sales, Retail Sales in New Zealand and more; let's see what awaits us this today..

In the US, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard, delivers a speech titled “The Global Recovery and Monetary Policy” at the Institute of Regulation and Risk, in Tokyo. And drops subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;

In Canada, New Motor Vehicle Sales, data that is released monthly and measuring the change in number of new cars and trucks sold domestically, is about to rise by 0.5% and It’s a sign of consumer confidence.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

Moving to Europe, Industrial Production, data that is released monthly and measuring the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced, is about to rise by 0.4%. It’s a leading indicator of economic health and tends to have a relatively mild impact because Germany and France that account for about half of the Eurozone’s economy.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis.

In Great Britain, External Bank of England (BOE), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC); Member Adam Posen participates in a panel discussion at the Barclays Capital Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference 2010, in New York. And impact on the future monetary policy.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is about to rise in 0.6%, data that is released monthly and measuring the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers.

In New Zealand, Retail Sales, the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending released monthly data that measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, is about to droop down by 0.7% and accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

More in New Zealand, Retail Sales Ex Autos is about to droop down from 1.1% to -0.4%, data that is released monthly and measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend.

In Japan, Business Survey Index (BSI) manufacturing index shows and optimistic result of 7.8. This survey is used to predict the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Tankan Survey.

Later in Japan, Revised Industrial Production, released monthly data that measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. is about to rise by 1% and production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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