Posted: 17 Jun 2010 01:33 AM PDT

The volume of retail sales in the UK jumped by 0.6%, far better than 0.1% that was predicted and double last month’s 0.3% rise. This surprise pushes GBP/USD higher – from 1.47 to 1.4740 after the release.

Retail sales often reflect consumer confidence – when consumers feel confident about the economic situation, they spend more at stores. This isn’t the only good sign in Britain this week:

This surprise joins the great employment figures we’ve seen yesterday. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits dropped by over 30,00, better than expected. Also the unemployment rate surprised with a drop from 8% to 7.9%.

Inflation continues to play a role, remaining above the government’s target, although it hasn’t been as strong as expected – CPI is at an annual rate of 3.4% at the moment – expectations were for 3.5%. Nevertheless, the level of inflation still puts pressures for a rate hike. Mervyn King dismissed the inflation and is waiting for it to go down.

GBP/USD has been struggling with the critical 1.4780 line for a few days, and could make another attempt to break above this line following the retail sales release.

Another attempt to break above 1.4780 will find resistance at 1.5050. Higher, 1.5130 was a support line when the Pound was trading at a higher range, and now serves as resistance. It's followed by 1.5350, which was a pivotal line, and then by 1.5530, the highest level in recent months.

Below, 1.4610 provides immediate support. It capped the Pound a few times in recent weeks. It's followed by 1.45 and 1.44, which was also a line of support in the past. The year-to-date low of 1.4227 is quite far at the moment

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Swissy Surges After Rate Decision

Posted: 17 Jun 2010 12:56 AM PDT

The Swiss Franc made a leap after the rate decision. USD/CHF plunged by about 100 pips to 1.1230 and EUR/CHF also fell by about 100 pips to 1.3780, about 50 pips above the all time low set last week.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left the Libor Rate unchanged at 0.25% and while they said they would do “everything” to keep price stability, they said that the economic growth and the demand for Swiss exports – hinting that another intervention in the forex markets is unlikely soon.

In the past, the SNB intervened to keep the EUR/CHF value above 1.50. When this level was breached, the SNB made small interventions to stop it from deteriorating quickly. This was usually done on Friday mornings.

But after the recent European turmoil in May that led to a breach of 1.40, the seemed rather reluctant. The rather-new head of the SNB, Philipp Hildebrand, has taken a slightly different approach than Jean-Pierre Roth, his predecessor.

Switzerland is in an excellent situation, also in football / soccer (stunned Spain), and the central bank now acknowledges it and lets the currency appreciate. It seems that they settle for verbal intervention, and the markets don’t buy their words.

The Swissy’s strength is also due to its renewed status as a safe haven currency. As an island in the middle of the troubled Euro-zone, and with the troubles in Japan, the Swiss Franc is now standing closer to the US dollar in the safe haven club.

Will EUR/CHF reach new record lows? It now depends more on the Euro and especially on Spain.

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Forex Daily Outlook – June 17 2010

Posted: 16 Jun 2010 02:00 PM PDT

We are expected to see US CPI almost unchanged, another decrease in Unemployment Claims and a growing U.S. current account deficit among other events. Let’s review today’s events:

In the US, Core Consumer Price Index is expected a slight rise of 0.1% following 0.0% in May and CPI which also includes volatile factors is expected to drop to -0.2% from -0.1% indicating low inflation rates in the US market.

Later in the US, Unemployment Claims are predicted to drop this week by 2,000 claims following last weeks unexpected rise of 456K.

More in the US, Current account deficit is foreseen to widen by $4B compared to the previous quarter.

Finally in the US, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index expected to go down by 0.3 points from 21.4 in May

In Canada, Wholesale Sales expected to drop by 1.0% reaching 0.4%

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, ECB Monthly Bulletin is issued. It reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s viewpoint.

More in Europe, Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber speaks at the Financial Times Deutschland Banking Conference, in Frankfurt whoch may affect interest rates and provide valuable information regarding future monetary policy.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis.

In Switzerland, London interest rate for 3-month Swiss franc deposits is expected to remain unchanged reaching 0.25%.

More in Switzerland, Swiss National Bank issues Monetary Policy Assessment, a Financial Stability Report, and holds a Press Conference which are important to investors seeking information about interest rates and monetary policy.

Finally in Switzerland, Industrial Production is expected to plunge this quarter to -6.3% following the impressive rise of 9.4% from the previous quarter.

In Great Britain, Retail Sales anticipated to decrease sales volume from 0.3% in May to 0.1%.

More in Great Britain, CBI Industrial Order Expectations expected to rise by 3 points reaching -15 which is a further improvement from the previous month

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes is released with a detailed record of the BOJ Policy Board’s meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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4 Major Brokers Now Supported on Currensee

Posted: 16 Jun 2010 07:27 AM PDT

Currensee’s network gets a major expansion. Traders from Alpari UK, FX Pro, Easy Forex and Ava FX can now share their trades on the social network. It seems that (almost) all the brokers are joining and allowing transparency.

These four brokers add to Zecco that joined Currensee a few days ago. In addition to sharing the trades with others Currensee traders can dive into forex strategies, see the current trend of traders and lots more.

You’re welcome to join the platform for free.

Here are more details about this announcement:

Currensee Forex Social Network Grows Roster of Supported Brokers

Alpari UK, Ava FX, Easy Forex and FX Pro traders can now join the Currensee trader network

Boston, MA – June 16, 2010 – Currensee, Inc. (www.currensee.com), the first Forex trading social network connecting traders from around the world based on real-time trades, today announced the addition of four new brokers to its roster. These new relationships enable traders who have accounts with Alpari UK, Ava FX, Easy Forex and FX Pro and to join Currensee for free and link their live brokerage accounts.

“We are proud to add these four brokers to the Currensee list of supported brokers," said Currensee co-founder Asaf Yigal "We couldn't do what we do without strong relationships with Forex brokers and these new partnerships enable a whole new group of traders to take advantage of the Currensee trader network."

Currensee brings trust and transparency to Forex trading by sharing real-time information on the actual trades its members are making. To join, members create a Currensee profile and link their live Forex brokerage account. As a member of the Currensee trading social network, traders continue to execute trades as they always would through their broker and can now measure their performance, share real-time trade data and collaborate with others in a completely transparent way as a member of Currensee.

“We are thrilled to partner with Currensee and to provide our traders with access to the Currensee trader network," said Ava FX CEO Emanuel Kronitz. "Ava FX is dedicated to creating an exceptional Forex trading experience, and our relationship with Currensee gives our traders access to a unique Forex social network and the ability to connect with a wide variety of traders from around the world. It is a great compliment to our services."

About Currensee
Currensee.com brings trust and transparency to retail Forex trading. The Currensee trading social network connects retail Forex traders from around the world so they can see each other's actual trades and share trading strategies in real-time to make more informed trade decisions. Currensee traders from over 80 countries have become members of the trading social network and linked their live brokerage accounts with one of the 100+ brokers supported by the platform. The unique Currensee Market Watch Social Indicators™ aggregate the wisdom of the network and deliver social trade data and a new way to look at the market. Currensee is funded by North Bridge Venture Partners, Egan-Managed Capital and Vernon & Park Capital and is a member of the National Futures Association. For more information, visit us at www.currensee.com. Fan us on Facebook, follow us on Twitter and watch us on YouTube.

Full Disclosure: I’m affiliated with Currensee.