Forex Crunch EUR/USD Sep. 13- Breaking Out Higher

Forex Crunch EUR/USD Sep. 13- Breaking Out Higher

EUR/USD Sep. 13- Breaking Out Higher

Posted: 13 Sep 2010 12:25 AM PDT


EUR/USD began the week with a break out of the downtrend channel and towards a higher resistance line. Will this optimism over the Basel III continue pushing the Euro higher on a light day? Here is a quick update on fundamentals, technicals and community trends.

eur usd forecast September 13 2010

EUR/USD broker above temporary downtrend channel. Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Active session seeing EUR/USD break out above 1.2770, and bouncing off 1.2840.
  • Current Range is between 1.2770 and 1.2840.
  • Further levels: Below,  1.2770, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150. Above   1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30, 1.3110 and 1.3267.
  • Downtrend channel broken and left behind: EUR/USD traded towards the end of last week in a temporary downtrend channel. This was broken and left behind.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, talks at Basel. He might comment on the Basel II accord that is pushing the Euro higher.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • After lengthy talks, an agreement was reached in Basel regarding the banking system – this international agreement is expected to make banks more stable. The implementation will be very gradual.
  • The reason for the big collapse last week – European debt issues, with a strong focus on Irish banks, made a “comeback”. These issues might return this week as well.
  • Market is drifting between “risk on” and “risk off” with a tendency to “risk on”. With “risk off”, good US figures boost the dollar and bad ones hurt it. When risk is on, bad US figures boost the dollar. In recent days, we’ve seen more normal behavior.
  • 1.2660 is a stronghold on the downside, 1.2930 on the upside.
  • Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long, up from 57:43 yesterday. These are 958 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..

Forex Binary Options Setups – September 13-17

Posted: 12 Sep 2010 07:00 PM PDT


Inflation figures from various countries, industrial output, job figures and other risk news forex events provide opportunities for binary options trading. Here are potential setups for forex this week.

Binary options can be used instead of the traditional stop loss (SL), or as a tool for tackling false breakouts and more. These one-hour  options can be used for trading on news events:

You can trade binary options at StartOptions, a respected binary options provider which I’m working with.

The events and the setups are based on information already prepared for the forex weekly outlooks, and the potential reactions to results which are significantly unexpected by the consensus. Some events are in collision with each other and could offset each other. So, these events aren’t in the list.

Quick explanation:

  • CALL options – if the price closes at a higher level than the price you purchased at expiry time, you earn 75%. If it closes below, you’re left with 10%.
  • PUT options – if the price closes under the price you purchased at expiry time, you earn 75%. If it closes above, you’re left with 10%.

Alright,  let’s review the events. All times are GMT.

  1. Swiss PPI: Monday, 7:15. Market expectations currently stand on +0.3%. +0.7% or higher – PUT option on USD/CHF. -0.1% or lower – CALL option on USD/CHF.
  2. British CPI: Tuesday, 8:30. Market expects +2.9%. 3.3% or higher, CALL option on GBP/USD. 2.4% or lower, PUT option on GBP/USD.
  3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Market expects 11.3 points. 20 or higher, CALL option on EUR/USD. Negative score – PUT option on EUR/USD.
  4. US Business Inventories: Tuesday, 14:00. Market expects +0.5%. +1% or more, PUT option on USD/JPY. Negative score, CALL option on USD/JPY.
  5. British Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 8:30. Market expects -5.2K. -20K or less, CALL option on GBP/USD. +3K or more, PUT option on GBP/USD.
  6. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. Market expects unchanged rate at 3%. Raise to 3.25%, CALL option on NZD/USD.
  7. Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity: Wednesday, 23:50. Market expects +0.7%. +1.6 or higher, PUT option on USD/JPY. Negative score, CALL option on USD/JPY.
  8. Swiss Industrial Production: Thursday, 7:15. Market expects +3.3%. +6% or higher, PUT option on USD/CHF. -1% or lower, CALL option on USD/CHF.
  9. British Retail Sales: Thursday, 8:30. Market expects +0.3%. 1.1% or higher, CALL option on GBP/USD. -0.5% or lower, PUT option on GBP/USD.
  10. US TIC Long-Term Purchases: Thursday, 13:00. Market expects 37.9 billion. 50 billion or higher, CALL option on USD/JPY, 20 billion or less, PUT option on USD/JPY.
  11. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Market expects +0.9 points. +6 or higher, CALL option on USD/JPY. -5 or less, PUT option on USD/JPY.
  12. German PPI: Friday, 6:00. Market expects +0.3%. +0.8% or higher, CALL option on EUR/USD. -0.2% or less, PUT option on EUR/USD.
  13. US Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 13:55. Market expects 70.3 points. 73 or higher, CALL option on USD/JPY. 65 or lower, PUT option on USD/JPY.

These expected market reactions and setups are general market commentary. This is by no means investment advice.

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Forex Daily Outlook – September 13 2010

Posted: 12 Sep 2010 03:00 PM PDT


We start the week with some interesting updates from New Zealand Retail Sales,  in UK (RICS) House Price Balance & Nationwide Consumer Confidence Survey and much more, Let’s see what awaits us today.

In New Zealand Retail Sales, Monthly data that measurers the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles, decreased by 0.9% Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales.

While the Core Retail Sales decreased by 0.4%, and it’s thought to be a better gauge of spending trends.

In the US, Federal Budget Balance, Difference in value between the federal government’s income and spending during the previous month; decreased by 56B hence indicates a deficit.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Great Britain, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance It’s a leading indicator of housing inflation because surveyors have access to the most recent price data by virtue of their job. It has increased to -11% hence still indicates more surveyors reported a fall in prices.

More in Great Britain, Nationwide Consumer Confidence, monthly Survey of about 1,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions, increased to 59 points and Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, PPI monthly report that measurers the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers has raised up by 0.8%. It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when manufacturers pay more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer

In New Zealand, Food Price Index (FPI), The change in the price of food and food services purchased by households stabilized on 1.6%, and Although food is among the most volatile consumer price components, this indicator garners some attention because New Zealand’s major inflation data is released on a quarterly basis.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.

Winners Edge Trading Announces New Forex Trading Competition

Posted: 12 Sep 2010 06:10 AM PDT


Together with Global Futures Exchange and Trading Co., Inc, Winners Edge Trading will be starting a competition between traders that involves cash prizes. The competition will run between September 19 through 24. The winner will be determined by the highest balance in the demo account. But it isn’t only about winning – it’s about learning.

The goal of this competition is to allow traders to showcase their trading skills and to learn from each other. Different forex traders have different trading approaches. Trading on real time data will provide a great learning opportunity for all participants.

Here’s the official press release:

Latrobe, PA. September 10th, 2010  - WinnersEdgeTrading.com and Global Futures Exchange and Trading Co., Inc. are pleased to announce the launch of an exciting forex trading competition.

The competition will commence on September 19th  2010 and run for 5 days until September 24th 2010. It will involve a simulated trading format, that won’t involve real trading funds, but will otherwise reflect a real trading environment.

There will be a cash prize for the winner of the competition which will be determined based on the highest account balance of all entrants at the end of the trade period.. Although there will be an excellent cash prize, the competition is primarily intended as a light-hearted challenge that allows people to showcase their trading skills or learn from others.

"We are excited to join with Global Futures to present this forex trading competition. We encourage as many people as possible to get involved" said Casey Stubbs from Winners Edge Trading.

"It really should be a lot of fun and it will be interesting to see the different trading approaches that traders might adopt. We have tried to craft a competition that reflects the real environment as accurately as possible. We will be using real-time data and trading the same markets that millions of traders participate in everyday. " Mr Stubbs explained.

Entry to the competition, and further details, are available by visiting:

http://www.winnersedgetrading.com/forex-trading-contest/
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