Forex Crunch EUR/USD Sep. 9 – Double Bottom in a Lower Range

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• EUR/USD Sep. 9 – Double Bottom in a Lower Range
• Forex Daily Outlook – September 9 2010
• USD/CAD Down on Canadian Rate Hike

EUR/USD Sep. 9 – Double Bottom in a Lower Range Posted: 09 Sep 2010 01:42 AM PDT EUR/USD is struggling in a lower range and marked a double bottom. Will it lose the critical support line? Here is a quick update on fundamentals, technicals and community trends. EUR/USD supported twice (red line). Click to enlarge. EUR/USD Technicals Asian session:  Narrow range around 1.2722, and then another fall towards 1.2660. Current Range is between 1.2605 to 1.2722. Further levels: Below,  1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150. Above   1.2770, 1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30, and 1.3110. Uptrend channels broken: EUR/USD traded in a main uptrend channel and a secondary one. Both were broken earlier this week, and are becoming irrelevant. Double bottom at 1.2660: This line also provided support last week. The double bottom seen in the past few days makes it a strong support line now. EUR/USD Fundamentals All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized. 6:00: German Final CPI. Exp. 0.0%. Actual 0.0%. OK. 8:00: ECB Monthly Bulletin. No big surprises. 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 470K. 12:30: US Trade Balance. Exp. -47.4 billion. 14:00: ECB member Axel Weber speaks. Yesterday he hurt the Euro. Will he do it again? EUR/USD Sentiment The reason for the big collapse earlier this week – European debt issues, with a strong focus on Ireland, made a “comeback”. Market is drifting between “risk on” and “risk off” with a tendency to “risk on”. With “risk off”, good US figures boost the dollar and bad ones hurt it. When risk is on, bad US figures boost the dollar. In recent days, we’ve seen more normal behavior. With the double bottom at 1.2660, it now became the stronghold on the downside. News from Ireland and Spain regarding debt will impact the Euro. Watch out for the US jobless claims. A rise above 500K could rock the markets. Currensee Community: 53% are Short, 47% are long, down from 57:43 yesterday. These are 966 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..

Forex Daily Outlook – September 9 2010 Posted: 08 Sep 2010 02:00 PM PDT U.S. and Canada’s Trade Balance and employment figures are the most influential events on our calendar before we close another week of trade. Here is an outlook on today’s events. In the US, Unemployment Claims an important signal of overall economic health expecting to continue last week's drop by another 2k reaching 470K. Later in the US, Trade Balance deficit grew wider than expected by growing to almost 50 billion a decrease to in deficit to 47.4B is expected now. Finally in the US, Crude Oil Inventories released weekly expected a small increase of 0.7M after 3.4M increase last week. In Canada, Trade Balance usually in surplus experienced an unexpected deficit of 1.1 billion last month, a smaller deficit of 0.8 billion is expected now. More in Canada, New Housing Price Index measuring Change in the selling price of new homes released monthly is predicted the same rise of 1.0% as in June and Housing Starts is predicted 185K new building starts 4000 less than in the previous month. For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast. In Europe, European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin is released reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s viewpoint. Also in Europe, Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber speaks at the Household Heterogenity and Finance Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank, in Cleveland could affect interest rates and provide information on future monetary policy. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis. In Great Britain, British rate decision will probably stay at 0.50% once again in spite intentions to raise rates to respond to the rising inflation. More in Great Britain, Asset Purchase Facility measuring the total value of money the BOE will create and use to purchase assets in the open market expected to remain 200B as in the previous month. Later in Great Britain, Trade Balance deficit is forecasted another 100,000K increase from July reaching 7.5B. Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast. In Australia, employment data  gained 25.3K expecting to further grow to 27.2K and the unemployment rate is expected to fall back down to 5.2% following 2.3% in July. More in Australia, Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Dr. Guy Debelle speaks at the Westpac Macro Strategy Forum, in Sydney. He’s responsible for advising Reserve Bank Board members – who decide where to set the nation’s key interest rates. May affect interest rates and provide information on future monetary policy For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast. In Japan, Final Gross Domestic Product expected 0.4% rise this quarter following a mere 0.1% rise in the previous quarter. More in Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes is released providing a detailed record of the BOJ Policy Board’s meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. That’s it for today. Happy forex trading! Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.

USD/CAD Down on Canadian Rate Hike Posted: 08 Sep 2010 06:25 AM PDT The Bank of Canada raised the interest rate for a third time in a row to 1%. This partial surprise sends USD/CAD down to another attempt on the support line. USD/CAD fell from 1.0470 to 1.0415 at the time of writing. The Canadian dollar is now approaching a significant line: Update 14:00 GMT: Canada’s important indicator, Ivey PMI was stellar – 65.9 points, 10 points more than expected. USD/CAD broke below 1.04 and now trades at 1.0370. The veteran 1.04 line is very close now. A break under this line will send USD/CAD down towards 1.0280, although a similar break yesterday ended only at 1.0340. Below 1.0280, the next lines are 1.02 and 1.01. A rebound will send the pair towards 1.05, and later 1.0680. There was no clear cut consensus about this particular rate decision. The majority of economists surveyed before the event opted for a rate hike, but this wan’t 100% certain. On the previous rate decision, the BOC expressed concerns about the economy, given the global worries. The recent monthly GDP release showed that the Canadian economy slowed down in the second quarter of 2010, similar to the slowdown in the US economy. Also the recent employment figures were somewhat disappointing, leading some economists to think that a pause would be seen now. But on the other hand, consumers are still buying, and the overall situation of the Canadian economy is good. In the accompanying statement, Mark Carney’s BOC hinted that they will pause with rate hikes for now. It’s important to remember that previous rate hikes were accompanied with worried statements. These statements helped USD/CAD remain above parity. A weaker Canadian dollar is good for the Canadian economy. Earlier today, Canadian building permits surprised with a drop of 3.5%, better than a drop of 4.2% that was expected. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..

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