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Chinese Yuan Continues to Tick Up
Jan 18, 7:37AM
At the very end of 2010, the Chinese Yuan managed to cross the important psychological level of 6.60 USD/CNY, reaching the highest level since 1993. Moreover, analysts are unanimous in their expectation that the Chinese Yuan will continue rising in 2011, disagreeing only on the extent. Since the Yuan’s value is controlled tightly by Chinese [...]
Fed Paper: Power of Technical Analysis in Forex is Declining
Jan 16, 10:26AM
Being a practitioner of fundamental analysis, you could say that I’m always on the lookout for hard evidence that fundamental analysis is superior to technical analysis. Thus, I was delighted to discover a working paper (“Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market“) by the St. Louis Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank, released just this [...]
Japanese Yen Due for a Correction in 2011
Jan 14, 7:29AM
Based on every measure, the Japanese Yen was the world’s best performing major currency in 2010. It notched up gains every one of its 16 major counterparts, and was the only G4 currency to appreciate on a trade-weighted basis. Against the US Dollar, it rose 10%, and touched a 15-year high in the process. However, [...]
All Eyes on the US Dollar in 2011
Jan 11, 4:10AM
According to Standard Life Investments, the US Dollar will be one of the top currencies in 2011. (The other currency they cited was the British Pound). How can we understand this notion in the context of record high gold prices and commentary pieces with titles such as “Timing the Inevitable Decline of the U.S. Dollar?” [...]
Varied Forecasts for Canadian Dollar in 2011
Jan 08, 10:15AM
The Canadian Dollar (“Loonie”) recorded a fairly strong 2010. It appreciated 5.5% against the US Dollar, as an encore to a 16% gain in 2009. Moreover, its rise occurred with remarkably little volatility, fluctuating within a tight range of $0.99 – $1.08 (CAD/USD. It total, it rose against “seven of its major peers,” and “gained [...]
Emerging Market Currencies in 2011
Jan 05, 5:55AM
Emerging market assets/currencies registered some unbelievable gains in 2010 as the global economy emerged from recession and investor risk appetite picked up. In the last few months, however, emerging market currencies gave back some of their gains as the EU sovereign debt crisis flared up and the currency wars began to rage. Given that neither [...]
Euro: Which Investors Know Best?
Jan 02, 5:45AM
As the WSJ recently pointed out, there is a bizarre disconnect between equities and currency markets regarding the Euro. On the one hand, the Euro was the world's worst performing major currency in 2010, and some analysts insist that its breakup is inevitable. On the other hand, stock market investors are increasingly bullish about Europe: [...]
Brazilian Real Supported By Fundamentals, but Obstacles Remain
Dec 31, 2:31AM
Despite all of the talk of currency war (a term first introduced by Brazili's Finance Minister) and volatility in forex markets, the Brazilian Real is on pace to finish 2010 only slightly higher from where it began the year. While fundamentals would seem to support a further rise, Brazil's government and Central Bank have made [...]
Swiss Franc Surges to Record High(s)
Dec 29, 7:20AM
In the last two weeks, the Swiss Franc rose to record highs against not one, not two, but three major currencies: the US Dollar, Euro, and British Pound. The Franc is now entrenched well above parity against the Dollar, and is closing in on the magical level of 1:1 against the Euro. With market uncertainty [...]
Forex Volatility Remains Abnormally High
Dec 26, 5:41AM
If you look at a chart of currency volatility over the last five years, two major spikes immediately jump out. The first took place in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in late 2008, while the second occurred earlier this year during the height of the EU sovereign debt crisis. While volatility has [...]
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