Forex Crunch USD/CAD Drops on Great Job Data – Parity in Sight

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• USD/CAD Drops on Great Job Data – Parity in Sight
• EUR/USD Sep. 10 – Dipping Into Lower Waters
• Forex Daily Outlook – September 10 2010
• AUD/USD Marches Forward on Jobs

USD/CAD Drops on Great Job Data – Parity in Sight Posted: 10 Sep 2010 04:02 AM PDT The Canadian economy gained 35,800 jobs, higher than expected. This sends USD/CAD to fresh lows, approaching the next support line. Update on the job figures and the currency’s strong week. Early expectations stood on a rise of 30,800 jobs in Canada. The results exceeded expectations by about 15%. On the other hand, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 8% to 8.1%. Traders focused on the more important Employment Change figure:USD/CAD dropped from around 1.0330 before the release to 1.0286, just above the 1.0280 support line that proved itself once again. This line became stronger. The next levels below are 1.02, 1.01 and the ultimate support line – parity. Above 1.05, the 1.0680 line provides strong resistance, followed by 1.0750 and 1.0850. Last month’s job figures were disappointing, as Canada lost jobs and the unemployment rate went back up from 7.9% to 8%. This was a busy week for loonie traders. It began with a smaller-than-expected drop in Building Permits and continued quickly with a bigger event. The Bank of Canada raised the interest rates for a third time in a row to 1%. There was a clear consensus about this move – so the reaction was strong. USD/CAD dropped from just below 1.05 to around 1.04. The Canadian dollar then got a boost from the Ivey PMI, that jumped to 65.9 points, 10 points higher than earlier expected. Since then, 1.04 capped the Canadian dollar, and it traded between this resistance line and 1.03, just above the next support line at 1.0280. The day isn’t over yet for the Canadian dollar – Mark Carney, head of the BOC, will be part of a panel in a conference in Calgary. Any comments about the economy will rock the markets just as traders close positions before the end of the week. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..

EUR/USD Sep. 10 – Dipping Into Lower Waters Posted: 09 Sep 2010 11:12 PM PDT EUR/USD got out of the perfect range and dipped lower, retreating quickly. Today is a rather light day in terms of events. Will it lose the critical support line? Here is a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends. EUR/USD supported twice (red line) at 1.2660, twice resisted at 1.2770 and dipped lower. Click to enlarge. EUR/USD Technicals Asian session:  A dip lower to 1.2640 and a retreat back to the range. Current Range is between 1.2660 to 1.2770. Further levels: Below,  1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150. Above   1.2770, 1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30, and 1.3110. Uptrend channels broken and left behind: EUR/USD traded in a principal uptrend channel and also a secondary one. Both were broken earlier this week, and are becoming irrelevant. Double bottom at 1.2660: This line also provided support last week. The double bottom seen in the past few days makes it a strong support line now. EUR/USD Fundamentals All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized. 6:45: French Industrial Production. Exp. 0.8%. 14:00: US Wholesale Inventories. Exp. +0.4%. EUR/USD Sentiment The reason for the big collapse earlier this week – European debt issues, with a strong focus on Irish banks, made a “comeback”. Market is drifting between “risk on” and “risk off” with a tendency to “risk on”. With “risk off”, good US figures boost the dollar and bad ones hurt it. When risk is on, bad US figures boost the dollar. In recent days, we’ve seen more normal behavior. With the double bottom at 1.2660, it now became the stronghold on the downside. Friday always brings action, as traders rush to close positions before the weekend. Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long, up from 57:43 yesterday. These are 1003open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..

Forex Daily Outlook – September 10 2010 Posted: 09 Sep 2010 02:00 PM PDT Canada‘s employment change and Unemployment Rate are the main events on the last day of this trading week. Here is an outlook on today’s market-moving events. In Canada, employment change showed an unexpected decrease of 9300 jobs in July after excellent figures in the previous months an addition of 23.9K new jobs is predicted now to help the loonie and Unemployment Rate is expected to remain 8.0%. In the US, Wholesale Inventories measuring change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers expected 0.4% rise following 0.1% rise in July. In Canada, employment change showed an unexpected decrease of 9300 jobs in July after excellent figures in the previous months an addition of 23.9K new jobs is predicted now to help the loonie and Unemployment Rate is expected to remain 8.0%. For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast. In Europe, French Industrial Production a leading indicator of economic health released monthly, predicted to rise 0.8% following a drop of 1.8% in June Also in Europe, Italian Industrial Production forecasted 0.4% rise which is 0.2% less than in June. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis. In Great Britain, Producer Price Index Input measuring Change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers expected 0.2% rise after three months of drops resulting in 0.1% decrease in the previous month may signal inflation trend and PPI Output is also predicted to rise by 1.0% as in July. More in Great Britain, CB Leading Index an index designed to predict the direction of the economy reached 0.5% rise in June a similar rise is expected now. Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast. That’s it for today. Happy forex trading! Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.

AUD/USD Marches Forward on Jobs Posted: 09 Sep 2010 06:39 AM PDT After a one month pause, Australia returned to posting excellent job figures, with the unemployment rate dropping to 5.1%. The reaction built up slowly, but now, the previous resistance line far behind, and the pair is at a 4 month high. Update on this strong currency. Australia enjoyed many months of improving job figures. Last month, job data was mixed, with a jump in the unemployment rate. But now, the Aussie is back to normal – a strong normal: Employment change, similar to the American Non-Farm Payrolls, rose by 30,900. This gain in jobs was slightly better than 27,200 that was predicted. The bigger surprise came from the unemployment rate, that dropped from 5.3% to 5.1%, exceeding expectations of a drop to 5.2%. These good figures had a limited initial reaction – AUD USD rose above the resistance line of 0.9220, but the first attempt failed and it fell back to around 0.92. But as the European session opened, and especially after the New York session began, the Australian dollar kept on moving forward. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.9270. The next resistance line appears at 0.9327, which is a very strong line. A break above this line will send the pair towards minor resistance at 0.9366 and fierce resistance at 0.9405. In case of a drop, the Aussie will find support at 0.9220 which is now a support line, followed by 0.9135 and 0.9080. The Australian dollar also enjoys risk appetite – the unexpected improvement in US weekly unemployment claims, 451K instead of 470K, brings an optimistic mood to the markets – and this supports “risky” currencies such as the Australian dollar. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..

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