Forex Crunch Aussie Rising With Economy

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• Aussie Rising With Economy
• EUR/USD Sep. 1 – Struggling in Range
• Forex Daily Outlook – September 1 2010

Aussie Rising With Economy Posted: 01 Sep 2010 03:58 AM PDT Australian GDP surprised in Q2 with a strong growth rate of 1.2%, higher than expected. This helped AUD/USD settle above 0.90 and aim for the next resistance level. Update on this high yielding currency. Australia publishes its Gross Domestic Product quite late, and doesn’t provide preliminary releases. After all the wait, the news were good: The Australian economy grew  by 1.2% in the second quarter of 2010, significantly better than expected – 0.9%. Also the figure for Q1 was revised to the upside – 0.7%, up from 0.5% originally posted. If Q1 wouldn’t be revised to the upside, the result for Q2 would be even stronger. AUD/USD was trading in a rather narrow range, between 0.8870 to 0.90 before the release. This narrow trading characterized other currencies. But after the release, the Aussie stood out. It jumped towards 0.90 immediately after the release, and then continued steadily above this round number, peaking around 0.9060, 20 pips short of the 0.9080 resistance line. A break above 0.9080 will send the pair towards 0.9135, followed by 0.9220 and 0.9327. A fall back below 0.90 will be cushioned by 0.8870. The Australian economy continues to outshine other Western countries, and so does the high interest rate – 4.50%. Despite 6 rates hikes since the crisis, the economy slowed down only marginally. Earlier this week, Company Operating Profits surprised with a 18.9% jump (5.9% expected), Building Approvals rose by 2.3%, despite the rate hikes that curbed the housing sector (a drop was expected). Retail Sales also surprised with a rise of 0.7%, better than 0.4% that was predicted,and the Current Account showed a 5.6 billion deficit, better than expected. The only disappointment came from the Private Sector Credit, which rose by only 0.1%. All in all, most indicators were great, with GDP leading the pack with an impressive growth rate. The rise in the Aussie is still undermined by the Australian elections that left a hung parliament. As soon as a new government is formed, the road is open for more gains. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..

EUR/USD Sep. 1 – Struggling in Range Posted: 01 Sep 2010 12:27 AM PDT EUR/USD got into narrow range trading, clinging to the uptrend support but breaking higher.  Will the pair pick a direction? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals  and community trends. EUR/USD within new uptrend channel, that began last week. Click to enlarge. EUR/USD Technicals Asian session:  EUR/USD bounced from the 1.2665 support line to the 1.2722 resistance line. Current Range is between 1.2665 to 1.2722. Further levels: Below, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150. Above  1.2722, 1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30 and 1.3110. Uptrend channel lost again: EUR/USD trades in an uptrend channel. Uptrend support began from the lows it reached on August 24th through a low on August 25th. Uptrend resistance began on a swing high on August 24th and was formed on August 26th. This is a notable line. EUR/USD lost it. EUR/USD Fundamentals All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized. 6:00: German Retail Sales. Exp. +0.6%, Actual -0.3%. Disappointment. 8:00: Final Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 55 points. 11:30: US Challenger Job Cuts. 12:15: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Exp. +20K. 14:00: US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.2. 14:00: US Construction Spending. Exp. -0.4%. 14:45: US FOMC member Elizabeth Duke talks. EUR/USD Sentiment Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive, although devastating figures that we’ve seen in recent days just shocked the markets. The 1.2610 line is critical on the downside. This is a busy week, with the Non-Farm Payrolls at the end of it. There are two important hints for the NFP today – ADP NFP, which supplies a hint about private sector jobs and the manufacturing PMI, which is an indicator of economic activity in August. Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long, with shortists having the upper hand. These are 949 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment. Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..

Forex Daily Outlook – September 1 2010 Posted: 31 Aug 2010 02:00 PM PDT U.S. DAP Employment Report, ISM Manufacturing Index and Australian GDP are at the top of our market moving events for today. Here is an outlook on the economic activities awaiting us. In the US, Automatic Data Processing Employment Report, a measure of jobs lost or added to the private sector of the economy, also serving as a preliminary estimate for the outcome of the monthly non-farm payrolls expecting a slower jobs creation of up to 20 K jobs in August from 42 K in July and Challenger Job cuts fell 57.2% in July totaled 41,676, a similar number is expected now, however the job-cut report must be analyzed with caution. It doesn’t distinguish between layoffs scheduled for the short-term or the long term, or whether job cuts are handled through attrition or actual layoffs. More in the US, ISM Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of industrial activity, expected to register another month of slower growth with the index pulling back to 53.2 from 55.5 in July and ISM Manufacturing Prices also predicted to drop to 55.5 from 57.5 in July. Later in the US, The Department of Energy reported that in the week ending August 20th, 2010, U.S. crude oil increased by 4.1 million barrels, a smaller increase of 1.3M is expected now and Construction Spending expected to decrease by 0.4% following 0.1% increase in June. Finally in the US, Total Vehicle Sales predicted to increase by 100K reaching 11.6M and Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks about Neighborhood Stabilization at the Federal Reserve REO and Vacant Properties Summit, in Washington may affect interest rates and provide info on future monetary policy. In Europe, German Retail Sales the primary gauge of consumer spending, expected 0.6% rise following a worse than expected drop of 0.9% in the previous month. More in Europe, Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index a leading indicator of economic health is foreseen to remain 55.0 indicating expansion. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis. In Great Britain, House prices a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health increased by 0.6% in July.  This modest rise offset the 0.6% fall in June and is likely to increase this time as well. More in Great Britain, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index a leading indicator of economic health predicted 57.1 points, 0.2 less than in the previous month but overall an encouraging figure. Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast. In Switzerland, SVME Purchasing Managers’ Index expected to drop 1 point to 65.9 indicating stability and growth in the Swiss market. In Australia, Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth should confirm the expectations for faster economic growth in Q2 2010 by up to 0.9% q/q from 0.5% in the first quarter. More in Australia, Commodity Prices a leading indicator of the nation’s trade balance since commodities account for over half of Australia’s export earnings has climbed 7% to 51.0% in July and is expected a similar rise this time as well. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast. In New Zealand, ANZ Commodity Prices dropped 0.8% in July a small rise is expected now. In Japan, Monetary Base measuring change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and current account deposits held at the BOJ forecasted 6.3% rise 0.2% more than in July. That’s it for today. Happy forex trading! Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.

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