GreatTrader FOREX

Percentage in Point

Posted: 30 Aug 2010 10:57 AM PDT

Wish to make the most profit on trading currencies then which is the best day to do it? In share trading, the market is not open 24 hours a day and during 5 days a week, however in the case of currency trading this is true. But this doesn’t imply that the currency trading market is getting the same number of business or price movements throughout these days. There is much more activity on the currency trading markets at specific times of a day and generally speaking, the best times to trade are when the trades are busiest. We could trade 24 hours a day, 5 days a week without waiting for the right time.

Best Time to Trade Currencies

The two leading trading floors in the world for currency trading are London and the New York markets. Even though the United Kingdom does not use the euro, most European countries are within one hour time difference from the United Kingdom, as is Switzerland. So between the US and UK sessions cover the largest part of the key currencies that are traded.

The United Kingdom session starts at 8.00 UTC and finishes at 16.00 UTC. The foreign exchanges that are primarily active during this session are the euro (EUR), British pound (GBP) and US dollar (USD) which is involved in the majority of Fx trades.

On the other hand, the US session starts at 13.00 UTC (8.00 EST) and ends at 22.00 UTC (17.00 EST). The most traded currencies during this are USD, EUR, GBP, AUD (Australian dollar), JPY (Japanese yen) and CAD (Canadian dollar).

The most active pairs during the London session are EURUSD with 39% of the trading volume, GBPUSD with 23%, USDJPY with 17%, USDCHF with 6% and USDCAD with 5%.

Sometimes volatility is low in the Tokyo session and sometimes good moves occur. The USDJPY is the most active pair with 78% of the volume followed by EURUSD with 15% and EURJPY with 5%.

Alan's Forex Blog

Use the same trading principles that major banks and hedge fund managers use everyday to make millions

Posted: 30 Aug 2010 12:37 AM PDT

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Forex Crunch EUR/USD Aug. 30 – Tight Trading in New Uptrend Channel

EUR/USD Aug. 30 – Tight Trading in New Uptrend Channel
Reminder – Trivia Quiz Live and Kicking – Win Cash Prizes
Forex Daily Outlook – August 30 2010
Coordinated Intervention To Weaken the Yen?
Forex Binary Options Setups – August 30 – September 3

EUR/USD Aug. 30 – Tight Trading in New Uptrend Channel

Posted: 29 Aug 2010 11:15 PM PDT

EUR/USD began this busy week with continued tense range trading, in a new uptrend channel that formed. Will it manage to break higher or collapse again below the channel? Here’s a quick update on fundamentals, technicals and community trends.

EUR/USD within new uptrend channel, that began last week. Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Technicals

Asian session: EUR/USD jumped higher, but remained fell and remained in the range.
Current Range is between 1.2722 to 1.2770.
Further levels: Below, 1.2665, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150. Above 1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30 and 1.3110.
New uptrend channel: EUR/USD trades in an uptrend channel. Uptrend support began from the lows it reached on August 24th through a low on August 25th. Uptrend resistance began on a swing high on August 24th and was formed on August 26th. This is a notable line. EUR/USD is currently in the middle of it.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Throughout the day: German Prelim CPI. Exp. +0.2%.
No European releases today.
12:30 GMT: US Personal Spending. Exp. +0.3%. A negative value will shock the markets.
12:30 GMT: US Personal Income. Exp. +0.3.
12:30 GMT: US Core PCE Price Index. Exp. +0.1.
17:30 GMT: US Federal Reserve member James Bullard speaks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive, although devastating figures that we’ve seen in recent days just shocked the markets.
The 1.2610 line is critical on the downside.
This is a busy week, with the Non-Farm Payrolls at the end of it. Tense trading might characterize the beginning of the week.
Currensee Community: 57% are Short, 43% are long, with shortists having the upper hand. These are 918 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

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Reminder – Trivia Quiz Live and Kicking – Win Cash Prizes

Posted: 29 Aug 2010 10:30 PM PDT

I wish to remind everybody that the forex quiz continues. We already have interesting developments.

The forex quiz consists of 4 simple questions. All you have to do is answer the questions and collect Facebook "Likes" from your friends. The answers to these questions can be easily found on both sites: Forex Crunch and Forex Rate It. You can explore the sites to find the answers. The quiz is open until September 6th.

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The quiz, with the interactive scoreboard and the terms are here.

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Forex Daily Outlook – August 30 2010

Posted: 29 Aug 2010 08:27 PM PDT

A busy week begins with a busy day – US consumer spending is the highlight of today, amongst many releases from around the world. Will we see more devastating figures already today? Or will tension remain high until the Non-Farm Payrolls? Let’s see what’s up for today:

In New Zealand, economic figures are released early – Trade Balance is expected to turn negative – a deficit of 28 million is expected to follow a few months of surplus.

Later in New Zealand, the NBNZ Business Confidence is an important official release that always rocks the kiwi. It fell to 27.9 points last month, hurting the currency. To close the day, Building Consents, are released, and will show how the housing sector is doing.

For more on the New Zealand dollar, read the NZD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand’s neighbor, Australia, Company Operating Profits are expected to shine with a growth rate of 5.9%, better than last time.

On the other side of the day, a speech by Guy Debelle, the RBA Assistant Governor, will speak, and is likely to shed some light on monetary policy.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD USD forecast.

In the US, a busy week of releases begins with the important Personal Spending release. American probably spent 0.4% more in the past month, after an unchanged figure last time. Note that as many economic indicators were awful lately, also now, a decrease in growth is also likely, and this can put the markets into depression.

Also in the US, Core PCE Price Index is expected to rise by 0.1% after not moving last month, Personal Income is expected to rise by 0.3% and a member of the Federal Reserve, James Bullard will speak in St. Louis, and he might add to Bernanke’s speech on Friday. Bernanke vowed to do everything possible to keep the recovery alive.

How bad is the situation in the US?

In Canada, Current Account is expected to show a bigger deficit of over 10 billion, up from 7.8 billion last month. On the other hand, the loonie might cheer up from a rise in the RMPI – a rise of 0.3% will boost Canada’s export-oriented economy.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

British banks are officially on a holiday. But, at the end of the day, at midnight UK time, the interesting GfK Consumer Confidence will be released and is likely to drop from -22 to -23 – showing that consumers are more pessimistic.

Cable traders expect a busy week ahead. For more on sterling, read the GBP USD forecast.

The bank of Japan might intervene in trading to weaken the yen. While the slow policymakers continue thinking, the yen will move by economic indicators:

Retail Sales are expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.1%, slower than last month’s 3.3% rate. At the same time, the preliminary figure for industrial production is likely to drop for another month, but at a slow scale of 0.3%, less than last month’s 1.1% drop.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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Coordinated Intervention To Weaken the Yen?

Posted: 29 Aug 2010 04:50 PM PDT

The Bank of Japan announced an immediate emergency meeting to begin very soon – Monday 00:00 GMT. There are expectations for new easing steps to boost the economy. But there might be more – Will we see a global coordinated intervention to weaken the yen? Yen crosses are already on the rise.

The governor of the BOJ, Masaaki Shirakawa, shortened his visit in Jackson Hole, where he met other central bankers, and returned swiftly to Japan. At 00:00 GMT, or 9:00 Japanese time, the BOJ is meeting for an emergency meeting. It happens as the week begins in Japan, and very early for JPY crosses in other places in the world:

Update: The BOJ disappointed by taking very limited measures. The yen strengthens after rising. But, there are still expectations for an intervention to weaken the currency, with 84.00 marked as the final frontier.

The rather new Japanese government is showing growing vocal concern about the strength of the yen. USD/JPY recently reached fresh 15 year lows. This hurts the Japanese economy, that is based on exports.

The Japanese government, led by Naoto Kan, pushed the BOJ to take measures, and did it in a public manner. It is also expected to declare a new stimulus program of its own, in a meeting on Tuesday.

But the BOJ doesn’t wait for Tuesday. According to expectations, the bank might enlarge its existing lending encouraging plan:

The central bank may expand a three-month 0.1 percent loan facility, increasing the supply of funds from 20 trillion yen ($230 billion) or extend the duration of loans to six months, Dow Jones reported.

Coordinated Intervention?

But there might be more under the hood. There’s talk that the BOJ will intervene directly in the markets to weaken the yen. As we know from various examples, central bank interventions are short-lived. The Swiss National Bank lost a lot of money on its interventions.

The meeting of many central bankers from all over the world in the Jackson Hole Symposium raises the question of a coordinated effort to weaken the yen. Together with central banks in the US and Europe, a move to weaken the yen might be successful.

Similar coordinated moves in the past had significant success. The US might support this move also as a maneuver against China, which keeps it’s currency, the yuan, weak, angering the US.

In the meantime, the Japanese yen weakens on thin trading. USD/JPY rose to 85.70, GBP/JPY rose above 133, EUR/JPY touched 109.25 and CHF/JPY reached 83.40.

This is a very early hour in the week – only the Sydney session is open at the time of writing. The Tokyo session will open soon. Later, there’s a bank holiday in Britain.

Thin trading is a good timing for an intervention.

The BOJ will hold a press conference at 5:30 GMT, and we’ll get to know what’s going on. An announcement of further easing steps is likey to weaken the yen only marginally. A coordinated intervention will send all JPY crosses to the skies.

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Forex Binary Options Setups – August 30 – September 3

Posted: 29 Aug 2010 07:08 AM PDT

Non-Farm Payrolls, GDP releases, consumer confidence and many more high risk news event provide opportunities for binary options on currencies. Here are potential setups for forex this week.

Binary options can be utilized as an alternative to the traditional stop loss, as a tool for protecting against false breakouts and lots more. One-hour binary options can be used for trading on news events.

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I’ve selected the events and the setups based on study already done for the forex weekly outlooks, and the potential reactions to surprises. Some events collide with each other and could offset each other. These events weren’t selected.

Quick explanation:

CALL options – if the price closes above the price you purchased at expiry, you earn 75%. If it closes below, you’re left with 10%.
PUT options – if the price closes below the price you purchased at expiry, you earn 75%. If it closes above, you’re left with 10%.

OK, let’s review the events:

Japanese Average Cash Earnings: Tuesday, 1:30 GMT. Market expectations currently stand on +0.9%. 1.5% or higher – PUT option on USD/JPY. Negative outcome, CALL option on USD/JPY.
German Unemployment Change: Tuesday , 7:55 GMT. Market expects a loss of 19K. a loss of 35K or more – CALL option on EUR/USD. a rise in unemployment -PUT option on EUR/USD.
Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 12:30 GMT. Market expects +0.2%. +0.5% or more, PUT option on USD/CAD. Negative result – CALL option on USD/CAD.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00 GMT. Market expects 50.9. 55 or more – CALL option on USD/JPY. 47 or less – PUT option on USD/JPY.
Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30 GMT. Market expects +0.9%. +0.4% or less, PUT option on AUD/USD. 1.4% or more – CALL option on AUD/USD.
British Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 8:30 GMT. Market expects 57.1. 60 or more, CALL option on GBP/USD, Below 50, PUT option on GBP/USD.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15 GMT. Market expects +20K. +50K or more, CALL option on USD/JPY. Negative number – PUT option on USD/JPY.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00 GMT. Market expects 53.3. 56 or higher – CALL option on USD/JPY. Under 50, PUT option on USD/JPY.
Australian Trade Balance: Thursday, 1:30 GMT. Market expects +3.11 billion. +4 billion or more – CALL option on AUD/USD. +1 billion or less – PUT option on AUD/USD.
British Nationwide HPI: Thursday, 6:00 GMT. Market expects -0.3%. -0.8% or worse, PUT option on GBP/USD. +0.1% or more, CALL option on GBP/USD.
Swiss Retail Sales: Thursday, 7:15 GMT. Market expects +2.3%. 3% or more – PUT option on USD/CHF. 1% or less – CALL option on USD/CHF.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30 GMT. Market expects 477K. 500K or more – PUT option on USD/JPY. 450K or less, CALL option on USD/JPY.
British Services PMI: Friday 8:30 GMT. Market expects 53.1. 56 or more – CALL option on GBP/USD. Below 50, PUT option on GBP/USD.
European Retail Sales: Friday 9:00 GMT. Market expects +0.3%. +1% or more, CALL option on EUR/USD. -0.5% or less – PUT option on EUR/USD.
US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday 12:30 GMT. Market expects – 100K. -200K or worse – PUT option on USD/JPY. +20K or more – CALL option on USD/JPY.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday 14:00 GMT. Market expects 53.6. 56.5 or more – CALL option on USD/JPY. Below 50 – PUT option on USD/JPY.

These expected market reactions and setups are general market commentary. This is by no means investment advice.

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