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Chinese Yuan as Reserve Currency

May 22, 10:47AM

Even before the sovereign debt crisis in Europe damped confidence in the world’s second most important reserve currency, the Chinese Yuan was on the cusp of being accepted as a global reserve currency. We’re all familiar with the arguments attacking the Yuan in this context: its currency is pegged, its capital controls are rigid, and its [...]


Failed Euro Bailout Would Buoy Yen

May 19, 4:50PM

Given that only a week has passed since the bailout of Greece was formally unveiled, it’s still too early to determine whether the plan will be success. Regardless of how it ultimately plays out, though, the bailout (not too mention the concomitant crisis) is shaping up to be THE big market mover of 2009. As [...]


When Will Attention Shift to the Dollar?

May 17, 12:51AM

The fiscal crisis ravaging the Euro and the Pound has sent the Dollar skyward. On the one hand, the prospect of continued uncertainty and dissolution of the Euro would seem to be an excellent harbinger for continued appreciation in the Dollar. On the other hand, it should only be a matter of time before investors [...]


Is There Any Hope for the Pound?

May 14, 3:09PM

Compared to the Euro, the Pound is Gold (figuratively speaking). Compared to everything else, well, the Pound is probably closer to linoleum. Bad geology metaphors notwithstanding, there really isn’t much to get excited about when looking at the Pound. Let’s take the election, for example. Originally billed as a chance for a fresh start, politically, for [...]


Euro Still Doomed, Despite Bailout

May 12, 3:23PM

In my last post, I reported that the markets were incredibly bearish on the Euro, due to concerns that the Greek debt crisis could neither be mitigated nor contained. By following up on this report with another incantation of Euro bearishness, I certainly run the risk of belaboring the point. Still, the fact that since [...]


Greek Debt Crisis Widens

May 06, 3:02PM

I must confess: I never expected the Greek debt crisis to reach such a dire threshold in such a short time period. Over a matter of mere months, the Euro has fallen 15% against the Dollar. That's the kind of drop that you would have expected from the Greek Drachma, not from the Euro! Moreover, it's [...]


Emerging Markets Mull Currency Controls

May 04, 2:19PM

The rally in emerging markets that I wrote about in April is showing no sign of abating. The MSCI emerging market stocks index is back to its pre-crisis level, while the EMBI+ emerging market bond index has surged to a record high. While no such index (that I know of) exists for emerging market currencies, [...]


China's Forex Reserves Surge to New Record

May 03, 4:12AM

There are no words to describe the size of China’s foreign exchange reserves. Massive, Mind-Boggling, and Eye-Popping come to mind, but don’t do the $2.447 Trillion justice. What’s more, this figure represents the end of March; the current total has almost certainly surpassed $2.5 Trillion. Interesting, the rate of reserve accumulation has slowed markedly from 2009. [...]


Gold Rises as "Alternative Currency"

Apr 29, 8:09AM

Everything in forex is relative, right? Actually, it turns out this adage is wrong, as there is now a way you can short the entire forex market! I’m not talking about some innovative new financial product that you’ve never heard of, but rather something that everyone already knows about: Gold. Before you accuse me of sounding [...]


No Credit Risk in Forex

Apr 27, 4:31PM

The risks in trading forex are manifold. There is interest rate risk (the possibility that interest rates could change adversely), country risk (that a political, economic, or monetary crisis could adversely affect the dynamics of a country's currency), and obviously there is exchange rate risk (that exchange rates can and often do fluctuate adversely). However, [...]



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