USDCHF Daily Forecast: October 05

The USDCHF made a significant technical movement on Friday as price violated the bullish channel to the downside. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting at least 1.0250 but market volatility lately makes my medium term outlook remains neutral. The best place to put a short position is waiting for price to retreat higher near the bullish channel lower line and we see rejection to move above 1.0380 resistance area with a tight stop loss if price go back inside the bullish channel.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: October 05

The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 88.59 but whipsawed to the upside and closed at 89.79. At the same time, the bearish continuation failure followed by an important technical event as price slipper above the trendline resistance (blue). Although it’s too early for a bullish view, it’s clear that the bearish scenario is now in critical phase as bearish pressure seems to begin to lose some momentum. Consistent move above the trendline should trigger further bullish momentum targeting at least 90.40 area. However if price reject to move consistently above the trendline, the bearish scenario should remains intact. Immediate support at 89.30 followed by 88.50.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: October 05

The GBPUSD also had indecisive movement on Friday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.5808 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.5944. On h4 chart below we can see that after break below the trendline support (orange, now become resistance) and bottomed at 1.5805 price retreated higher back at the trendline. I think this is a normal movement and as long as price stay below the trendline and 1.6000 area, I prefer a downside scenario. However break above the trendline and consistent move above 1.6000 area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6113 area. Immediate support at 1.5905. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum.

GBPJPY Forecast September 18

The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the trendline resistance (red) and topped at 151.18 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 149.77 and go back below the trendline resistance. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 149.02 – 148.60 key support area. Immediate resistance at 150.40. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

USDCHF Daily Forecast: September 18

The USDCHF made another moderate bearish momentum, bottomed at 1.0275 and closed at 1.0281. Slowly but sure, the pair keep moving lower and now traded below 1.0300 area. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0210 area. I do not see any reversal/correction signal so far, so I am hoping further downside pressure. Immediate resistance at 1.0325 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone and might go higher re-testing 1.0420 area.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 18

The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday. However, on h1 chart below we can see that the trendline resistance (red) has been violated to the upside at the same time price is making a new bullish channel (blue channel) indicating potential further upside correction testing 91.80 key resistance area. As long as the pair stay below that area I still prefer bearish scenario, but I will stay out for now. Immediate support at 90.70. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 90.20 key support area.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: September 18

The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.6567 but failed to break above my 1.6580 resistance area before whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.6425 and closed at 1.6446. On h4 chart below we can see that the upper line of the bearish channel did a good job keeping the bearish scenario intact. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.6350 area (50% Fibo of 1.6113 – 1.6740) and the lower line of the bearish channel. CCI just cross the -100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential further weakness for the Sterling. Immediate resistance at 1.6480 – 1.6500 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

EURUSD Daily Forecast: September 18

The EURUSD made another moderate bullish momentum, topped at 1.4766 and closed at 1.4743. The bias remains bullish in nearest term with potential targets at 1.4825 (September 23 2008 high) and 1.4867 (September 22 2008 high). On h4 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in the rising wedge area and we really have just a very little room left before the break. I think I will keep out from the market until we have a break from the rising wedge. The best place to put a long position is still around the rising wedge lower line but with only so little room left in the rising wedge, the risk-reward ratio is not too good at this phase. I know this situation really test our patient. It’s clear that we are in bullish momentum and Dollar remains under pressure but I can not (and will not) ignore any potential reversal/correction signal. Immediate support at 1.4630 followed by 1.4550.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 17

The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 90.11 but further bearish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 90.89. On h1 chart below we can see that the 90.20 area which connected by the red horizontal line has been a strong support so far. On the upside, the trendline resistance and 91.80 area are my key level resistance area at this phase. As long as the pair stay below that area I still prefer a downside scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing the trendline resistance area but I will stay out for now as the bearish scenario remains intact. A violation to the trendline resistance should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 91.80 area.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: September 17

The GBPUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped between 38.2% – 50% Fibo retracement of 1.6113 – 1.6740. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and I think we are still in no trading zone now. Be patient and do not rush jump into the market. The key levels at this phase is 1.6400 support and 1.6580 resistance. Break below 1.6400 should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.6200 while break above 1.6580 should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6740 area.

EURUSD Daily Forecast: September 17

The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4736 and closed at 1.4707. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in rising wedge area. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4800 area. However, the rising wedge on h4 chart and CCI divergence on daily chart I showed you yesterday still give valid bearish reversal/warning, so I will keep stay out for now. If the rising wedge violated to the upside, that would be a bearish reversal scenario failure and would give me a bullish set up. At this phase, potential place to put a long position at is the around the rising wedge lower line with very tight stop loss below it. Short positions is not recommended unless we really have a valid rising wedge breakdown. Immediate support at 1.4640 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could be considered as a breakdown to the rising wedge and could lead us back to 1.4570 or even 1.4446 area.

USDCHF Daily Forecast: September 16

The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday. The pair is now clearly in consolidation phase where bearish momentum seem exhausted, but we also haven’t seen significant bullish correction yet. On daily chart below you can see that in the last 4 days, the pair formed 2 inverted hammer and 2 Doji  indicating an intense battle between buyers and sellers with no winner so far. This situation is one of the market condition where I prefer to stay out and just wait for further development. Immediate support at 1.0300 – 1.0250 area. Initial resistance at 1.0420.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 16

The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday but failed to break above 91.80 before whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 91.00. The way I see it, the bullish correction phase might over now and we are ready for a bearish continuation outlook. The bias is bearish in nearest term re-testing 90.20 area. Immediate resistance at 91.60/80 area. Break above that area should be seen as a potential threat to the current bearish outlook. CCI just cross the -100 line down on h1 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: September 16

The GBPUSD made another bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6401 but closed higher at 1.6485. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel has been convincingly violated to the downside indicating bullish failure. Price break below 1.6500 area (38.2% Fibo retracement of 1.6113 – 1.6740), slipped below the 50% Fibo but pullback to the upside and now struggling around 38.2% Fibo area around 1.6500. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I prefer a downside scenario testing 1.6353 area (61.8% Fibo). Immediate resistance at 1.6530. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

GBPJPY Forecast September 16

The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 151.74 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 149.44. On my h4 chart below we can see that after had a significant bearish momentum from 163.05 and hit 149.02, the pair has been corrected higher but never really able to stay above the 23.6% Fibo before fell below it again. The bias is bearish in nearest term re-testing 149.02. Immediate resistance at 150.30. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

EURUSD Daily Forecast: September 15

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4514 but further bearish pressure was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.4651 and closed at 1.4627. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4719 area but I think the situation here could be very tricky. On my h4 below I see a rising wedge formation indicating a potential warning of bearish reversal (correction). The price is now around the upper line of the bullish channel, so a downside correction is actually logic at this phase. However short positions is not recommended.

At the time I wrote this comment, the pair is traded around 1.4630 area, about 60 pips higher from my nearest support around 1.4570 area, which in my opinion is the best level to place a buy position with a very tight stop loss below the rising wedge lower line because if the rising wedge violated to the downside, the next downside correction target would be 1.4446 area. I don’t like my risk-reward ratio from here. I know the current strong bullish momentum is really tempting, but knowing the direction is never enough in forex trading. We need to be patient and consistent with our money management planning.

USDCHF Daily Forecast: September 15

The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.0422 but further bullish correction was limited as the pair closed lower at 1.0336. On daily chart below, we have another inverted hammer so bullish correction warning is still there. I still prefer a bearish scenario but I think it’s better to stay out at this phase. Yes, the current bearish momentum is strong and tempting but I will never ignore any correction/reversal warning. Immediate support at 1.0300 – 1.0250. Initial resistance at 1.0422 (yesterday’s high) followed by 1.0527.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: September 15

The hanging man formation gave us a valid warning of a bearish correction yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.6520 and closed at 1.6576. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish momentum can not really made a violation to the bullish channel yet as the price still struggling around the bullish channel lower line. The bullish scenario remains intact and I still prefer an upside scenario, but I think it’s better to keep out from the market now. Immediate resistance at 1.6655 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6740 area. Initial support at 1.6500. Valid break below that area should be seen as potential bullish failure.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: September 15

The hanging man formation gave us a valid warning of a bearish correction yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.6520 and closed at 1.6576. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish momentum can not really made a violation to the bullish channel yet as the price still struggling around the bullish channel lower line. The bullish scenario remains intact and I still prefer an upside scenario, but I think it’s better to keep out from the market now. Immediate resistance at 1.6655 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6740 area. Initial support at 1.6500. Valid break below that area should be seen as potential bullish failure.

14 September 2009 Forecast

EURUSD Forecast:

The EURUSD made indecisive movement on Friday indicating consolidation after some bullish momentum. On daily chart below we can see that the pair still moving in a bullish channel but price retreat lower around the upper line of the bullish channel. I think the pair is in potential downside correction phase, testing 1.4446 support area. Break below that area should trigger further downside correction towards the bullish channel lower line. Only a violation the the bullish channel should be seen as bullish failure. Immediate resistance at 1.4633 area (Friday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4719. CCI in overbought area and heading down on daily chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 1.6740 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 1.6655, which is also the open price of the day, formed a Doji on daily chart. Like I already showed you on Saturday, the hanging man candlestick formation could lead us to some downside correction testing 1.6593 and 1.6500 ( 23.6% and 38.2% Fibo retracement of 1.6113 – 1.6740) support areas. Only a violation to the bullish channel could be seen as bullish failure. Immediate resistance at 1.6740 (Friday’s high). CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside rebound.


USDJPY Forecast:
As I had expected, the USDJPY continued it’s bearish momentum on Friday, hit my short target at 90.70, bottomed at 90.20 and closed at 90.70. On h1 chart below we have a hammer formation after some bullish momentum, so watch out for potential bullish correction testing 90.70 – 91.15 resistance area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction testing 91.80. As long as the pair stay below that area, I still prefer bearish scenario. Immediate support at 90.20. (Friday’s low). Break below that area should trigger further bearish continuation towards 89.70 area.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made indecisive movement on Friday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On daily chart below we can see that a Doji appeared after an inverted hammer during bearish momentum indicating that the bearish might have exhausted now and we might have potential bullish correction testing 1.0527 resistance area. As long as the pair stay below that area I still prefer bearish scenario. Immediate support at 1.0338. CCI in oversold area and heading up on daily chart suggesting potential upside pressure.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating bullish failure and potential bearish view. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 149.02. Immediate resistance at 151.10. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

Wed, 22th of April, 2009

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday. The pair attempted to make higher correction, topped at 1.2992 but closed lower at 1.2945. From the bearish scenario point of view since the downside momentum from 1.3734, as long as the pair stay below 1.3100, any upside corrective movement is “normal”. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are now in no trading zone. On daily chart we had symmetrical triangle formation indicating a consolidation. The “double bottom” at 1.2890 (April 20 and 21 low) area should be the key support level at this phase. Break below that area could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.2725 area. CCI in neutral area on both hourly and h4 chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.2896
• S2= 1.2847
• S3= 1.2799
• R1= 1.2993
• R2= 1.3041
• R3= 1.3090

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD was corrected higher yesterday. On h4 chart we can see that after breakdown the trendline support, the pair moved higher testing the same trendline (now become resistance). The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are entering the no trading zone. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4750. Initial support at 1.4550. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.4523
• S2= 1.4374
• S3= 1.4283
• R1= 1.4763
• R2= 1.4854
• R3= 1.5003

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY was traded higher yesterday. The pair topped at 98.89 and closed at 98.70. On h4 chart we can see that the bearish pressure from 101.43 found strong support around 97.60/70 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term and it’s better to stay away from the market now and wait for further development. Immediate resistance is seen at 99.00 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 97.98
• S2= 97.26
• S3= 96.81
• R1= 99.15
• R2= 99.60
• R3= 100.32

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday. On hourly chart below we can see that after had a significant bullish momentum, the pair is now moving in ranging area between 1.1739 – 1.1635. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Break from the ranging area could give us clearer direction. CCI in neutral area both on hourly and h4 chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.1633
• S2= 1.1593
• S3= 1.1552
• R1= 1.1714
• R2= 1.1755
• R3= 1.1795

April 21, 2009

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD had another bearish momentum yesterday. After break below key support level at 1.3000 – 1.2950, the pair bottomed at 1.2888 and closed at 1.2919. The descending triangle pattern has been giving us a valid bearish scenario so far and I am still expecting further potential bearish movement towards 1.2456 this week. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but we seem to have support around 1.2840/50 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.2725 area. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for a potential upside rebound testing 1.2950/70 resistance area. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.2855
• S2= 1.2792
• S3= 1.2696
• R1= 1.3014
• R2= 1.3110
• R3= 1.3173

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday. After violated the trendline support on h4 to the downside, the pair bottomed at 1.4499 and closed at 1.4536. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.4420 area. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for a potential upside rebound testing 1.4575 resistance area. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.4420
• S2= 1.4305
• S3= 1.4111
• R1= 1.4729
• R2= 1.4923
• R3= 1.5038

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday. The pair bottomed at 97.65 and closed at 97.87. On h4 chart we can see that the triangle formation has been violated to the downside. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 97.10 area. However CCI just cross the -100 line up om hourly chart so watch out for a potential upside rebound testing 98.10 resistance area. Break above that area could trigger further upside rebound.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 97.88
• S2= 96.89
• S3= 96.14
• R1= 99.62
• R2= 100.37
• R3= 101.36

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday. The pair topped at 1.1739 but closed lower at 1.1689. On daily chart below we have a shooting star candlestick pattern suggesting a potential bullish exhaustion and a warning of bearish reversal. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1750. Initial support at 1.1620. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.1644
• S2= 1.1602
• S3= 1.1555
• R1= 1.1733
• R2= 1.1780
• R3= 1.1822

April 20, 2009

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum on Friday. The pair break below the key support level at 1.3100, bottomed at 1.3016 and closed at 1.3024. My technical focus remains at the descending triangle formation indicating potential bearish scenario. However, pay attention to the psychological level around 1.3000 – 1.2950 which could be a potential strong support. Break below that support area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.2840 area. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3100. Break above that level could be a potential violation to the current bearish view and lead us back to the no trading zone. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside rebound.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.2961
• S2= 1.2898
• S3= 1.2781
• R1= 1.3141
• R2= 1.3258
• R3= 1.3321

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD made further bearish correction on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.4754 and closed at 1.4781. On 4h chart we can see that the pair is moving lower towards the bullish trendline support. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4650 but remains neutral in medium term. CCI in oversold area and heading up on 4h chart so watch out for a potential upside rebound testing 1.4830 resistance area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.4710
• S2= 1.4639
• S3= 1.4525
• R1= 1.4895
• R2= 1.5009
• R3= 1.5080

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement on Friday, formed another Doji formation on daily chart. On 4h chart we have a triangle formation indicating consolidation phase. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Break from the triangle should give us clearer direction. Immediate resistance is seen at 98.75. Initial resistance at 99.70. CCI in neutral area in all three time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 98.71
• S2= 98.20
• S3= 97.69
• R1= 99.73
• R2= 100.24
• R3= 100.75

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum on Friday. The pair topped at 1.1686 ans closed at 1.1671. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.1750. However CCI in overbought area and heading down on 4h chart so watch out for a potential downside pullback testing 1.1620 support area. Break below that support could trigger further bearish correction and take us back into no trading zone.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.1522
• S2= 1.1374
• S3= 1.1292
• R1= 1.1752
• R2= 1.1834
• R3= 1.1982

15 April 2009

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD was traded lower yesterday. The pair failed to stay above 1.3340, bottomed at 1.3225 and closed at 1.3258. On daily chart below we have descending triangle formation in a bearish major trend, so technically for me the pair should remains in bearish outlook. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.3100 support area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3290 – 1.3310 area. CCI in neutral area on both 4h and daily chart.